ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  Lijiang old town Another view of Liiang old town Water wheels that distribute the canal's water still work. The most southerly permanently snow-capped mountain in the world. The Naxi ethnic minority's scared Jade Dragin Snow Mountain at 10,600 feet elevation Spectacular mountain scenery by rail from Lijiang to ShangriLa (Xiangelila)  Elevation 10,800 feet Tibetan-style architecture of Shangri-la's railway station Prayer wheels in Shangri-la's town square The Tibetan monastery on the hill  All-word Tibetan-style shophouse in Shangri-la town square

  Weekly Dashboard: 04 Nov 2025.  I may hate Trump but as regards the US economy, I have to go by the data. And currently the US economy still doesn't look like its going to implode- despite the national debt of US$38 trillion, impact of tariffs on consumers and businesses, de-dollarization moves by China, and BRICS, and signs of weakness in the labor market. Add to that, the Fed's coming intrerest rate reductions and money printing, and one does wonder at the resilience of the US economy. Perhaps all those TACO (Trump Always Chickens out) on China helped saved the day. Anyways, take a closer look at each of the set of 8 economic indicators. Private credit risk still looks manageable going by the BAA Corporate Bonds Credit Spread despite the bankruptcy of auto loans and parts companies Tricolor and First Brands and the dangerously weak balance sheet of the small regional banks. But while the AI bubble continues to grow, the party in Wall Street goes on and make the rich f...

  Figure 1. XAUUSD (left axis) and XAGUSD (right axis) with 20-day probabilistic forecast and Gold/Silver ratio mini-panel.   Acknowledgements: Thank you to EODHD.com for providing the data required for this blog post.  At a glance: what's driving Silver (XAGUSD) prices? Silver goes where Gold goes and since it is still much cheaper in US$ per ounce (US$48.00 for Silver versus US$4000 for Gold) itvattracts those who missed out on Gold and still has a lot of catching up to do.  The huge US national debt of $38 trillion and growing by the day spooks traditional view of US Treasuries as risk-free Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to respond to a sluggish economy   China and many other Central Banks reducing their exposure to USD and stocking up on Gold Inflation in the USA as Trump's tariffs kick in and consumers face higher prices Federal Reserve announced end of quantitarive tightening which means quantitative easing (money printing) again in 2026. Dis...

Jungle food: Purple hill rice, pickled small river fish, chicken soup cooked in bamboo, pickled jungle fern, river fish crackers. I brought Cristina and her fellow Igorot friend (who has just come to Singapore for work)  to eat at Kantin@Jewel a restaurant serving the food of the tribes in Sarawak. See photo captions. The food is not really authentic though they do use the wild herbs and vegetables found in the tropical forests. The Igorots of The Philippines, the Dayaks of Sarawak, the Nagas of Nagaland, India are all descended from the aboriginal tribes of  Taiwan. These fierce warlike tribes with their common  head-hunting tradition were never subdued by the foreigners who invaded and colonized their country - the Japanese in Taiwan, the British in India and Malaysia, the Spanish, Americans and  WWII Japanese Army in The Philippines. But those who accepted the Christianity brought by missionaries were transformed.  But even today, some Nagas are still fightin...

 A big Thank You to EODHD.com for the data without which this post could not have been written. The Close of Silver (XAGUSD) as of Friday 24 Oct 2025 is 48.62.The 21 business days ahead forecast for spot investment grade Silver bullion is summarized thus:  10% chance of going below 48.32 50% chance of being 54.33 10% chance of being above 60.80 Methodology We prefer to apply probabilistic quantile forecasting due to the highly unstable situation as the MAGA Man keeps changing his policies almost daily, and even just the words he uses generates  asymetric shocks to the model that renders straight forecasts useless.  Model input variables:  10yr Treasury yield US Dollar Index Spot Gold price S&P500 US Unemployment Rate Methodology Methodology summary (plain-language bullets) Data we used Daily end-of-day prices from EODHD for Silver (XAGUSD) and Gold (XAUUSD). Macro/market context series (Dollar Index, 10-year Treasury yield, S&P 500, unemployment). We rei...

  The patterns on a Giraffe’s body, Dragonfly’s wing, dried mud, Tortoise shell, Bee Hive honeycomb structure and many other objects in Nature are generated by an algorithm to create Voronoi maps- named after Georgy Voronoy who discovered and write about such patterns.   Why did Nature create Voronoi patterns? Efficient use of space:  The pattern is ideal for maximizing the contents of a limited space, as seen in the construction of bee hives or cellular structures in muscles. Structural strength:  It provides a lightweight yet strong design, with properties that can be optimized for specific needs, such as impact absorption in biomimetic components. Optimal resource/function distribution:  The pattern helps organize and distribute resources or functions evenly. Voronoi pattern applications in everyday life Voronoi Algorithm in a nutshell in simple language A Voronoi diagram splits a plane into regions aroun...

A big thank you to EODHD.com for the data of XAUUSD and XAGUSD. Quality data at affordable price.   In times of uncertainty, investors turn to Gold. But spot Gold is now around USD4000 per troy ounce. On my trip down to www.indigopreciousmetals.com to buy bullion, I saw many people now buying Silver. Old folks, rich Indonesians and rich Indians. Why? Silver is not a Central Banks reserve currency like Gold, but it also has many industrial uses: See screenshot below. Besides the price of silver is only USD52 per troy ounce. XAU is Gold spot price XAG is Silver spot price. The 40 days ahead median forecast price for XAU is USD4208 and for XAG is 53.46. See charts below. [for methodology on Quantile Forecasts using Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees see previous recent posts on this blog ]. What is interesting is that proportionally speaking XAG has more potential than XAU. (The redline of XAG sits nearer the top of the green forecast band box.) And so if you look at the third chart be...