GAUGING OIL PRICE DIRECTION FROM ITS FUTURES PRICE

No one can predict the oil price 1 month ahead, next week or even tomorrow. But still, some businesses e.g. Airlines have to try because they have to hedge their fuel cost against swings in their fuel cost. In economic planning, governments also need to forecast revenue and expenditure. One of the ways to hedge is by buying a Futures contract [which is the promise to deliver something at a certain price at a certain time in the future]. Such as the Brent Oil Crude Futures of the CME Group (former Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in the chart above. Can the 1-year, 2 year and 5-year Futures price of oil give us an indication of the direction of oil price? We know that prices change according to events that happen every day and every hour; and no one can predict such events from Libya oil terminals burning to release of data on China’s economic growth. There are two reasons why the Futures price can be a predictor of prices in the future: (1) The futures price is determined by ...