ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  THE UNCERTAINTY INDEX: SINGAPORE HAS THE HIGHEST LEVEL Uncertainty is the silent and most deadly  killer of the financial markets. And Singapore, as one of the most open economies in the world with a trade-to-GDP ratio of 311% as of 2023 will be badly impacted. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/ have done great work in creating Indices to measure uncertainty. Basically it uses text analysis keywords in the news media, in Internet searches as well as economic data and data on policy changes to compile the Uncertainty Index. They have also compiled Uncertainty Index for major countries as well as a global Index. Read the About Us and Methodology on their website for a better understanding . The chart shows global uncertainty at an all-time high due to Donald Trump's unpredictability and insane negotiation antics because he thinks ruling a country is similar to "The Art of the Deal" the title of his book. The previous peak on the chart was the Covid-19 crisis beginning...

It is an accepted principle that in attempting to build a model of something in the real world, one should have a deep knowledge of the subject that is being modeled. Because domain expertise is crucial for choice of input variables, as well as clear statement of the relationship between the variables, as well as the quantification of the coefficients [parameters] for each equation of the model. However, in recent times, there is some serious study of blackbox approaches to modeling. A blackbox type of model is one where [1] choice of Input need not be restricted to those which are justified to be inputs according to the theoretical principles of the subject to be modeled. [2] A clear statement of the relationship between input variables is not absolutely necessary, instead leaving it to the blackbox to work out the relationship. [3] For [2], non-parametric methods machine-learning methods such as neural nets, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms are used to classify, detect patterns or ...