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Showing posts with the label Principal Components Analysis

Eigenvalues as Measures of Instability in Financial Markets

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Students of mathematics (like me) may initially find great difficulty in understanding Vectors, Matrices, Eigenvectors and Eigenvalues. A good way to understand them is to visualize. So in the 3-Dimensional chart above is a chart  with  an example of what  Principal Component Analysis looks like. (The math applies to any number of dimensions but since humans cannot visualize more than 3 dimensions we use this diagram.) So above we have a box with axes x,y,z, showing 3 Eigenvectors-Red, Blue and Green. You can see that they are orthogonal (at right angles) to each other, thus reducing the dimensions of the data space and producing a data space which captures the highest degree of  variance, that is the essence of the data. Now, Eigenvectors only show the direction of the vector. They length of the vectors is the Eigenvalue.Eigenvalues tell you how much the data spreads out along each axis (how important each direction is). So, PCA helps you find the most meaningf...

A PCA-Based Multi-Asset Class ETF Portfolio for these Uncertain Times

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 In this post we asked a Statistics-trained AI to construct a portfolio consisting of ETFS representing Asset Classes viz: DXY=Currency [USD]; DCB=Commodities; IEF=10-year Treasury; SPDR=Equities [SP500]; GLD=Gold. Data as of 4 June 2025 The initial PCA (Principal Components Analysis out is presented in the chart below: The Correlation matrix Heatmap is shown below: The Investor’s instructions to the AI was: “ The uploaded .xlsx contains the prices of the most common and most liquid ETFs representing the different asset classes viz: SPDR, DXY, IEF, GLD, DBC. Due to the unpredictability of the current situation in the financial markets caused by the US-China trade war and the unpredictable behavior of the current U.S. President, use the most recent PCA loadings.  Assume I am a retiree with no regular income and live on the monthly payout from my Social Security and the interest rate payment from my bank savings account. The current bank savings account interest rate is 2.5 % ...