TRUMP’s 90-DAY CHINA TARIFF PAUSE: IT AIN’T OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS
#“It ain’t over till the fat lady sings” is an American colloquialism meaning that the final outcome of an event is uncertain until it's completely over. It's often used in situations where a seemingly certain outcome could still be reversed. The origin of the phrase is from Richard Wagner’s opera “Die Valkure” (The Valkyrie) where the long aria by Brunhilde marks the end of a Ring cycle. Here’s a look at what the market thinks about Trump’ s 90-day pause for tariffs on China. We explain the charts attached. Chart: 1-3,7-10,>20 US Treasuries prices falling Data from 2 Jan to 15 May. The prices of 1-3yr tenure [SHY Yellow], 7-10yr tenure [IEF Red] and >20yr tenure [TLT Green] ETFS of Treasuries are all falling in unison. Their prices have been standardized by Z-score to make them inter-comparable visually. So you can see that the long bond, the >20 bond which are mostly held by foreign central banks, sovereign funds and large pension funds falls the most. Whic...