ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  The two sets of charts [(1) Last week actual vs forecasted (2) The week ahead]  above  and the executive summary  below sums up all I have to say. But I would like to add that the day for a cataclysmic reckoning of the US national debt draws ever closer, accelerated by the stand-off in Iran. Also, the probability of this being triggered by the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade is very real and could be very soon. Looking at the output of the Long Shot 95th quantile of our models, plus with US 30-year Treasury at 5.23 % and Japanese 30-year JGB at 4.02 %; plus AI Bubble burst and stock market crashing ,Gold at US$10,000 an ounce  and Silver at US$140 an ounce by year end is not an impossibility. Of course my opinion is ceteris paribus and rebus sic stantibus which are the legal terms  for "all things being equal" and "things as they are i.e. fundamentals remain unchanged" which in a Trumpian world can be quite a stretch of the imagination.  What the nu...

  Note: all $ are USD since Gold/Silver quoted in USD. WEEKLY UPDATE: NEW FORMAT FOR INCORRIGIBLE GAMBLERS. You don't want to understand Pinball Loss in quantile forcecasts, you don't want to know why GBDT is a forest of Decision Trees. Or how my injection of bootstrapped residuals into the Monte Carlo Simulation improves forecast accuracy. Sigh....For all you incorrigible gamblers, my new format consists of only 2 Tables: 1. How accurate was last week's forecast (2) Forecast for the week ahead. See the two tables below. THE WEEK AHEAD • Gold looks better positioned in the near term than silver. Gold's 20-day model now tilts bullish, while silver's tilts mildly cautious. This reversal is notable: for most of the past month, silver had the stronger near-term skew. After the week's big move, the model is essentially saying gold still has more room to run in the next 20 days, while silver may need to consolidate first. • The 60-day picture is still constructive fo...

  Next week’s 2,10,30-year Treasury yields may determine whether we will see the straw that will break the camel’s back, the snowflake that will trigger the avalanche, the spark that will set off the powder keg. Refer to image above for my 8 July post for a checklist of what will happen.   This week's models were run against a backdrop of extraordinary macro turbulence compressed into the final two trading sessions of July. On July 29, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5–3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote — three members dissented in favour of an immediate hike — sending a hawkish signal that drove the 30-year nominal Treasury yield to 5.28%, its highest level in 19 years. The following day, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted stealth yen-buying intervention (estimated at $74bn YTD), sending USD/JPY down almost 3% to 158 before a partial recovery. The combined effect: the DXY briefly fell below 100 — its lowest since mid-June — while nominal Treasury yields...

  AI can detect subtle patterns which the human brain may not be able to. Here are three examples. In these examples the AI converts the charts into pixels as well as uses OCR (Optical Character Recognition) to quantify changes in shades of colours, measure ‘distances’ between lines, rates of change and so on. Here are some of the hidden insights it uncovered.  1. FAN CHARTS  The fan charts above showing forecasted prices of gold and silver 60 days ahead were generated after 10,000 trials of a Monte Carlo Simulation. Q stands for quantile thus Q90 is 90th quantile. Gold's Q90–Q75 spread (47.6 points) is in fact wider than its Q25–Q10 spread (36.0 points).  Gold's dollar distribution is modestly top-heavy: about 21.7% of upside room to Q90 against 18.2% of downside room to Q10, measured from the median. Silver's is extreme: +59% of  room above the median versus −34% below. The model isn't merely uncertain about silver; it is saying that if it is wrong, it is far ...

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This week delivered a compelling but contradictory picture. Gold rose 1.8% to $4,055.70 and silver surged 4.6% to $58.49 — silver's outperformance compressing the Gold/Silver Ratio from 71.3 to 69.3, a notably bullish signal for silver relative to gold. The GBDT forecasting model responded with sharply higher median forecasts across all horizons, and gold's 60-day probability of gain jumped to 79.7%. Yet under the surface, the macro environment deteriorated on every front. The DXY-Metals Nexus Monitor composite scores deepened materially — Gold to −0.87 and Silver to −0.86, from −0.73/−0.72 last week — as all five signal modules held at Strong Reduce. Real TIPS yields continued to rise: the 10-year reached 2.43% (+8bp) and the 5-year climbed to 2.17% (+13bp), both firmly in Strong Headwind territory. The week's most significant signal shift: Gold's 60-day Skew Score flipped from Bullish Lean (+0.09) to Bearish Lean (−0.12), revealing that even as the ...

Executive Summary  As of 18 July 2025, the three quantitative models present a nuanced picture: a near-term constructive signal from the GBDT forecaster is offset by persistent macro headwinds flagged by both the DXY-Metals Nexus Monitor and the Real Yields Monitor. The GBDT model assigns a greater-than-60% probability of price gains for gold over the next 20 and 60 days, and above-50% probability for silver across both horizons. Median forecasts for both metals sit above current market prices. Three of four forecast horizons carry a positive skew — meaning the model sees more room to the upside than to the downside. A particularly notable observation this week is that the 20-day Q90 pinball loss scores are lower than both Q50 and Q75 for both gold and silver. As explained in the GBDT section below, this is a bullish leading indicator: it signals that actual prices have been consistently landing closer to the upper end of the model's predicted range, pointing to embedded upward mom...

Weekly update is the output of the Gold/Silver trinity of models: 1. GS-GBDT which is a price momentum and autoregression model, 2. GS-DXY Monitor which is a model of the DXY Index and its correlation with Gold and Silver prices, 3. GS-Real Yields Monitor which tracks real yield of Treasuries (Nominal interest rate minus Rate of inflation) and its impact on Gold and silver prices. The tables and charts here are mostly self-explanatory but one thing to note: Since I am a long-term holder of Gold and silver I treat extreme bearish signals ("Strong Reduce" in model signals) as a deeply oversold reading and an invitation to buy; due to the fundamentals underpinning Gold and Silver.  For technical details and methodology of models see: https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-finalized-trinity-of-models-for.html https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-finalized-trinity-of-models-for_01846758995.html https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-finalized-trinity-of-models-...