18 Aug 25 US Stagflation Scenario Risk Dashboard
Data as of 15 Aug 2025 Sources: CPI YoY from BLS API (CUSR0000SA0; fallback FRED CPIAUCSL). Breakevens (T5YIE, T10YIE), TIPS (DFII5, DFII10), curve (DGS2, DGS10), and HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) from FRED. Takeaway: The probability mix reflects the current balance of risks across inflation, growth, and credit. A higher soft-landing share aligns with firm real yields and contained credit spreads; a tilt toward stagflation rises when breakevens and OAS widen while the curve re-inverts. Compare with 11 Aug Probabilties (below) A soft-landing muddle-through scenario now seems probably. For methodology and explanation of inflation scenarios see: https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2025/08/usa-stagflation-risk-dashboard-11-aug.html Breakeven Inflation and 5y5y Forward Insight: 5Y breakevens proxy near-term inflation expectations and move with energy and supply shocks. 10Y breakevens anchor longer-run inflation views; stability near 2 percent suggests credibility of the Fed targe...