ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

Data as of 14 August 2025 If you believe that the US economy still has potential (which I do not) and if you also believe that MAGA Man's antics will not destroy it (which I do not) then you may want to sit on the Dow Jones Index (through an ETF) for a long time. If the $37 Trillion debt, the rout in the Bond Market, de-dollarization, and Stagflation does not deter you, see above for the Support (cut loss if price breaks from above) and Resistance price levels (take profit  if price crosses from below) for the DJI.  How the S/R levels were determined It's rather technical but I shall try to explain in simple language.  We first smoothed and fitted the raw 270 data points time series of the DJI Close price with ARIMA (1,1,1,) We then ran the fitted ARIMA data through 5000 trials of Monte Carlo Simulation to see how it behaved. The post-Simulation data was then put though a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with K=3 components. The highest density interval (HDI) at 60% probabili...

  Data used: Boeing Co. Data as of 17 April 2025 It is true that short-term modeling and predictions of stock prices using just price data is valid and useful. We do not need fundamental data as input variables for short-term predictions. But there are inherent flaws in traditional Technical Analysis (TA). The inherent flaws of traditional technical analysis indicators, such as RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, all assume that the relationship between market variables is linear and that data distributions are Gaussian (Normal). But it is well-known that financial markets exhibit non-linear dynamic characteristics with distributions that are not Normal i.e. have more than 1 peak, are highly skewed and have long fat tails (kurtosis). And that the relationship between market variables is highly non-linear.  However, these short-term linear relationships can be modeled with Linear Regression . The Table below shows that Linear Regression, particularly its Boosted version produces the sm...