ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR PROVIDING WITH ACCESS TO THEIR FINANCIAL MARKETS DATA: XAGUSD AND XAUSD ! Above is the probability heat map for Silver. It covers the price range USD70.00 to 90.00. As you can see, the forecast is optimistic. Even 09 and 10 Jan re-balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index where Silver's current weighting of 9% has been rebalanced to its allocated 4% has not dampened the bullishness. As of US market close on Friday 09 Jan, spot Silver is 79.84. So probability of 90.00 being achieved in current forecast horizon is achievable.   Below, the is day-by-day quantile forecast table to serve as a guide for your investing: And here is how the probabiltues for HitAnyDay and CloseAboveOnDay20 are calculated. SILVER FORECAST PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS 1. Monte Carlo Simulation Setup We run 1,000 simulations of silver price over 20 business days. Each simulation: Starts from the last observed price Uses ARIMA model for expected return Uses...

The previous forecast was almost on the dot: See https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2025/12/spot-silver-updated-forecast-till-31.html  The current forecast is for each day from 05 Jan to 30 Jan 2026. I consider this forecast "Interim" because there are many exogenous factors during this period that may come into play which we cannot model and will make this forecast irrelevant. Among them: impact of China's export control, Bloomberg will also rejig the  weighting for Silver in its Commodity Index due to Silver's outperformance, COMEX declares force majeure and pays in cash if it cannot make physical delivery, the bullion banks may exit all Silver positions even if they incur losses. The Model For those who want to know: I use GARCH, ARIMA, 1000-trials Monte Carlo Simulation and Quantile Projections. The data is fitted to a Student-t Distribution to better accomodate tail risks. The Distribution is diagnosed for Fit with Aike Information Criteria (AIC). Also, ARIMA Resid...

  A big shout-out and thanks to EODHD.com for providing the data for this post. Current Silver Price: $58.52/oz Model: ARIMA(1,0,1)-GARCH(1,1) with 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations Forecast Date 3 Dec 2025 ________________________________________________________________________________ Why This Model Beats Traditional Technical Analysis Traditional technical analysis relies on pattern recognition, support/resistance levels, and indicator signals—all inherently subjective and backward-looking. Our probabilistic approach offers three critical advantages: 1.       Quantified Uncertainty: Instead of binary predictions, we provide probability distributions showing the full range of likely outcomes with confidence intervals. 2.       Dynamic Volatility Modeling: GARCH captures volatility clustering—the tendency for large price moves to follow large moves—which technical indicators miss entirely. 3.     ...