ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  Not referring to Silver, the Lone Ranger's horse but 99.9 % .Silver bullion. I am not able to refresh my Silver Forecast Model due to unavailability of US economic data, as well as the fact that a forecast will not be useful until we see what the Fed does on 9-10 December. Also, I am on vacation in Japan till 10 Dec.  But Silver has broken all resistance levels and I think its useful if I extract from the 29 Nov email to customers by Indigo Precious Metals' Managing Director David J. Mitchell: "The CME Globex Futures & Options markets were abruptly halted during early Asian trading around 10 a.m. SGT, and, critically, remained offline for the entire day. This was not a routine technical glitch. The shutdown triggered global disruption across futures markets, following a severe outage at CME Group — the world’s largest derivatives exchange. And while I avoid conspiracy narratives, the full shutdown of all major Western trading exchanges precisely as silver encountered...

Current Silver Price:  $50.58 (Nov 14, 2025) ! 20-Day Outlook:  Gradual upward trend expected Day 20 Projection (Dec 12):  $52.47 median (+3.74% from current) Model Performance:  Test RMSE of 0.022 (2.2% error)   Distribution Analysis Left panel: Fan chart showing the full distribution of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations across percentile bands Right panel: Violin plots showing the probability distribution at key forecast days (1, 5, 10, 15, and 20) Uncertainty & Change Analysis Left panel: Forecast uncertainty grows from ~$0.56 on Day 1 to ~$0.93 on Day 20 (Q90-Q10 range) Right panel: Expected percentage change from current price - all 20 days show positive expected returns, ranging from +0.9% to +3.74% Model Diagnostics Residual Statistics: Mean: 2.5e-05 Std Dev: 0.005226 Skewness: -1.326 Kurtosis: 8.649 The model shows good fit with near-zero mean residuals, though there's some negative skewness and excess kurtosis indicating occasional larger-than-expec...

  Figure 1. XAUUSD (left axis) and XAGUSD (right axis) with 20-day probabilistic forecast and Gold/Silver ratio mini-panel.   Acknowledgements: Thank you to EODHD.com for providing the data required for this blog post.  At a glance: what's driving Silver (XAGUSD) prices? Silver goes where Gold goes and since it is still much cheaper in US$ per ounce (US$48.00 for Silver versus US$4000 for Gold) itvattracts those who missed out on Gold and still has a lot of catching up to do.  The huge US national debt of $38 trillion and growing by the day spooks traditional view of US Treasuries as risk-free Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to respond to a sluggish economy   China and many other Central Banks reducing their exposure to USD and stocking up on Gold Inflation in the USA as Trump's tariffs kick in and consumers face higher prices Federal Reserve announced end of quantitarive tightening which means quantitative easing (money printing) again in 2026. Dis...

 A big Thank You to EODHD.com for the data without which this post could not have been written. The Close of Silver (XAGUSD) as of Friday 24 Oct 2025 is 48.62.The 21 business days ahead forecast for spot investment grade Silver bullion is summarized thus:  10% chance of going below 48.32 50% chance of being 54.33 10% chance of being above 60.80 Methodology We prefer to apply probabilistic quantile forecasting due to the highly unstable situation as the MAGA Man keeps changing his policies almost daily, and even just the words he uses generates  asymetric shocks to the model that renders straight forecasts useless.  Model input variables:  10yr Treasury yield US Dollar Index Spot Gold price S&P500 US Unemployment Rate Methodology Methodology summary (plain-language bullets) Data we used Daily end-of-day prices from EODHD for Silver (XAGUSD) and Gold (XAUUSD). Macro/market context series (Dollar Index, 10-year Treasury yield, S&P 500, unemployment). We rei...