ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? BUT THE MODEL PERFORMANCE DIAGNOSTICS ARE SO GOOD. (SEE LAST PARAGRAPH BELOW) WE SHALL SEE, WE SHALL SEE. EVEN IF Q50 IS ACHIEVED I AM SET FOR LIFE!   The most immediate impact of the current USA/Israel-Iran war has been the sharp rise in oil and LNG prices as Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. According to the latest announcements by the US, Israel as well as the Iran governments, the war may likely continue for at least a few weeks or even a few months. I want to see if I can model the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment which the war will inevitably cause, on gold and silver prices in 60 days from now.  This is a departure from my usual models using just XAUUSD, XAGUSD price data. The macroeconomic variables input variables are:  1. Inflation (FRED Core PCE) 2. The US Dollar (FRED nominal broad dollar Index DTWEXBGS 3. 10 -year Treasury yields 4. Equities (stock market) S&P500 The impact on gold and silver prices will dep...

  The media is reporting that investors are showing heightened interest in Gold, Silver and Platinum as alternatives to savings deposits, annuities and stocks. Here is a primer.  Gold, silver, and platinum are classified as precious metals because they are naturally occurring elements defined by three primary criteria: rarity, high economic value, and chemical resistance (for various industrial ushes). GOLD (XAUUSD) -Current Price: $5,108.25 USD (as of Feb 20, 2026) -Reserves: Relatively scarce; estimated 50,000 metric tons of economically viable reserves remaining globally - Mining: Primarily mined directly from gold ore deposits through open-pit and underground mining; also recovered from placer deposits - Top Producer: China (approximately 11% of global production), followed by Australia and Russia) - Investment Role: Premier safe-haven asset, inflation hedge, currency debasement protection, central bank reserve asset, portfolio diversification - Industrial Usage: Electroni...

A big thank you to EODHD.com for the data of XAUUSD and XAGUSD. Quality data at affordable price.   In times of uncertainty, investors turn to Gold. But spot Gold is now around USD4000 per troy ounce. On my trip down to www.indigopreciousmetals.com to buy bullion, I saw many people now buying Silver. Old folks, rich Indonesians and rich Indians. Why? Silver is not a Central Banks reserve currency like Gold, but it also has many industrial uses: See screenshot below. Besides the price of silver is only USD52 per troy ounce. XAU is Gold spot price XAG is Silver spot price. The 40 days ahead median forecast price for XAU is USD4208 and for XAG is 53.46. See charts below. [for methodology on Quantile Forecasts using Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees see previous recent posts on this blog ]. What is interesting is that proportionally speaking XAG has more potential than XAU. (The redline of XAG sits nearer the top of the green forecast band box.) And so if you look at the third chart be...