Revised Macro model replacing DXY with Fed's Broad Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS)
Posts
Gold-SIlver Noise Comparison 10 Mar 26
Understanding what percentage of the current price action is noise-driven and what percentage is fundamentals-driven helps prevent emotional/panic response to volatile market swings. The metric used is a Haar Wavelet* that is efficient at separating noise from true signal without being whipsawed. The fundamentals underpinning gold are: safe-haven asset, hedge against inflation, a component of country foreign reserves, monetary metal, increase in demand from China and India The fundamentals underpinning silver are: industrial demand (Solar panels, EV batteries, semi-conductors, defence [missiles, communications, drones] medical devices); increasingly becoming a monetary metal like gold, severe production deficit for continuous 6 years ; 70% of silver is a by-product of Zinc, Copper, Lead. Increase in demand from China and India. Key Takeaways - Silver noise is 3.2x higher than Gold (12.8% vs 3.9% of price) -Both metals are undervalued vs their fundamentals — Silver by ...
MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: 30-Day and 60-Day Forecasts: A CRASH BEFORE MID-APRIL?
ARE WE REALLY GOING TO HAVE A CRASH BEFORE MID APRIL? SEE CHARTS BELOW. HeatMap shows at the moment main determinant of gold, silver price is negative correlation with USD (DXY)
US/Israel-Iran War: Macroeconomic Factors-Impact on Gold and Silver Price
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? BUT THE MODEL PERFORMANCE DIAGNOSTICS ARE SO GOOD. (SEE LAST PARAGRAPH BELOW) WE SHALL SEE, WE SHALL SEE. EVEN IF Q50 IS ACHIEVED I AM SET FOR LIFE! The most immediate impact of the current USA/Israel-Iran war has been the sharp rise in oil and LNG prices as Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. According to the latest announcements by the US, Israel as well as the Iran governments, the war may likely continue for at least a few weeks or even a few months. I want to see if I can model the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment which the war will inevitably cause, on gold and silver prices in 60 days from now. This is a departure from my usual models using just XAUUSD, XAGUSD price data. The macroeconomic variables input variables are: 1. Inflation (FRED Core PCE) 2. The US Dollar (FRED nominal broad dollar Index DTWEXBGS 3. 10 -year Treasury yields 4. Equities (stock market) S&P500 The impact on gold and silver prices will dep...