US Economy Scenario Probability Model
Weekly Dashboard: 04 Nov 2025. I may hate Trump but as regards the US economy, I have to go by the data. And currently the US economy still doesn't look like its going to implode- despite the national debt of US$38 trillion, impact of tariffs on consumers and businesses, de-dollarization moves by China, and BRICS, and signs of weakness in the labor market. Add to that, the Fed's coming intrerest rate reductions and money printing, and one does wonder at the resilience of the US economy. Perhaps all those TACO (Trump Always Chickens out) on China helped saved the day. Anyways, take a closer look at each of the set of 8 economic indicators. Private credit risk still looks manageable going by the BAA Corporate Bonds Credit Spread despite the bankruptcy of auto loans and parts companies Tricolor and First Brands and the dangerously weak balance sheet of the small regional banks. But while the AI bubble continues to grow, the party in Wall Street goes on and make the rich f...