Historic Uncertainty Level: Global Economy as Complex Adaptive System
The image above plots the Global Economic Policy Index from 1997 to Mar 2025. The Index is compiled by https://www.policyuncertainty.com/about.html an econmic research institute. Its methodology can be obtained from its website. We can clearly see that the ups and downs are getting increasingly extreme. You can see it when you compare the height of the peaks registered during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the 2008 US Sub-Prime Mortage Melt-Down, the 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic, and the recent MAGA Madness. The reason for greater and greater bouts of Uncertainty volatily is that as countries of the word become more and more interconnected through technology and trade, the world economy becomes a SuperOrganism with a life of its own- a.ka. A Complex Adaptive System (CAS). The properties of a CAS are feedback loops, adaptation and co-evolution, emergent behaviour, decentralization and distributed control etc. The full list of properties is given below. Another r...