ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

Executive Summary  As of 18 July 2025, the three quantitative models present a nuanced picture: a near-term constructive signal from the GBDT forecaster is offset by persistent macro headwinds flagged by both the DXY-Metals Nexus Monitor and the Real Yields Monitor. The GBDT model assigns a greater-than-60% probability of price gains for gold over the next 20 and 60 days, and above-50% probability for silver across both horizons. Median forecasts for both metals sit above current market prices. Three of four forecast horizons carry a positive skew — meaning the model sees more room to the upside than to the downside. A particularly notable observation this week is that the 20-day Q90 pinball loss scores are lower than both Q50 and Q75 for both gold and silver. As explained in the GBDT section below, this is a bullish leading indicator: it signals that actual prices have been consistently landing closer to the upper end of the model's predicted range, pointing to embedded upward mom...

 Model No. 1 of 3: GOLD & SILVER 20-DAY AND 60-DAY QUANTILE FORECASTS General introduction to the 3 models: These three consecutive posts (after a long absence) is the culmination of many months of hard work resulting in a suite of 3 models for the monitoring, forecasting and risk/reward calculation of my Gold and Silver bullion portfolio. Why do we need three models?  Because Gold and Silver are monetary metals that carry no yield (interest-earning capacity) but are also hedges against inflation, currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty. Additionally, Silver is an industrial metal that is required for nearly all products of the modern economy- from EV batteries to, semiconductors, solar panels, smart weapons, and indeed anything that requires electrical conductivity. Thus, we need to monitor not only the USD which is the currency that Gold and Silver are quoted in, but also bond yields, inflation and major currencies such as USD/EUR and USD/JPY. Also, Model No.1 u...