ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

Collection of 1 oz sovereign and special edition Silver coins. See captions for their country of issue. All are legal tender with denominations in their local currency except Asahi Silver Dragon, Singapore Merlion, South Africa Krugerrand and Somali Elephant which are special editions. They are also 999 or 9999 investment grade and  GST-free as part of Singapore government measures to promote Singapore as a Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)  Exchange, settlement and safe storage hub.  British Britannia   Australian Kangaroo South African Krugerrand Mexican Libertad Canadian Maple Leaf Singapore Merlion Armenian Noah's Ark Austrian Philharmonic Asahi Silver Dragon American Silver Eagle Somali Elephant

I have been watching Chinese historical movies. And I have observed that meals are a part of every event. Doesn't matter if the Xiongnu barbarians are at the palace gate; the Emperor will still be feasting in his harem.  Generals consume a whole roasted lamb while discussing war strategies. Scholars debate the merits of Confucianism versus Legalism in between nibbling delicate morsels of Yangtze river snails stewed with Bamboo Shoot. Farmers celebrate a good harvest by offering the Gods a Pig's Head, a Cow's head and a Sheep's head . And so my lunch  today: -Bitter Cabbage Rice with Waxed Pork Belly and Duck Liver Sausage - Radish, Tomato and Pork Rib Soup - Stir-Fried Leek with Tau Kwa - Pan-Fried Pumpkin Cake with Minced Chicken Meat and Chili Paste - Fermented Rice Wine Bitter Cabbage Rice with Waxed Pork Belly and Duck Liver Sausage Leek with Soya Bean Cake  Pumpkin Cake with Minced Chicken Meat and Chili Paste Radish, Tomato and Pork Rib Soup Fermented Rice Wine...

  Note: all $ are USD since Gold/Silver quoted in USD. WEEKLY UPDATE: NEW FORMAT FOR INCORRIGIBLE GAMBLERS. You don't want to understand Pinball Loss in quantile forcecasts, you don't want to know why GBDT is a forest of Decision Trees. Or how my injection of bootstrapped residuals into the Monte Carlo Simulation improves forecast accuracy. Sigh....For all you incorrigible gamblers, my new format consists of only 2 Tables: 1. How accurate was last week's forecast (2) Forecast for the week ahead. See the two tables below. THE WEEK AHEAD • Gold looks better positioned in the near term than silver. Gold's 20-day model now tilts bullish, while silver's tilts mildly cautious. This reversal is notable: for most of the past month, silver had the stronger near-term skew. After the week's big move, the model is essentially saying gold still has more room to run in the next 20 days, while silver may need to consolidate first. • The 60-day picture is still constructive fo...

 Nasi Lemak (Malay translation: Coconut rice) is a popular food in Singapore. My photo shows 2 Fried chicken wings, eggplant with dried shrimp, cabbage, fried egg, chili paste.It's origin is humble - cheap but stomach-filling meal which as recently as 10 years ago, could be bought at Malay coffee stalls for S$1.00. At that time a packet of Nasi Lemak consisted of a small fish fried whole, a slice of cucumber, and a dollop of sweet and spicy chili paste   Since then, it has progressed up the social ranking, devoured by both the rich and poor. And Nasi Lemak can now be served with many types of ingredients. Prices have risen considerably and it now sells for $3.00-$5.00 at the hawker centers. But it's fashionable for the rich to like poor man's food. And so there are now high class nasi Lemak restaurants serving pretty much what you see in my photo. Except that I paid S$5.10 for my plate and they would be paying S$25.00 for their Nasi Lemak at the Coconut Club.

  Next week’s 2,10,30-year Treasury yields may determine whether we will see the straw that will break the camel’s back, the snowflake that will trigger the avalanche, the spark that will set off the powder keg. Refer to image above for my 8 July post for a checklist of what will happen.   This week's models were run against a backdrop of extraordinary macro turbulence compressed into the final two trading sessions of July. On July 29, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5–3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote — three members dissented in favour of an immediate hike — sending a hawkish signal that drove the 30-year nominal Treasury yield to 5.28%, its highest level in 19 years. The following day, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted stealth yen-buying intervention (estimated at $74bn YTD), sending USD/JPY down almost 3% to 158 before a partial recovery. The combined effect: the DXY briefly fell below 100 — its lowest since mid-June — while nominal Treasury yields...

  AI can detect subtle patterns which the human brain may not be able to. Here are three examples. In these examples the AI converts the charts into pixels as well as uses OCR (Optical Character Recognition) to quantify changes in shades of colours, measure ‘distances’ between lines, rates of change and so on. Here are some of the hidden insights it uncovered.  1. FAN CHARTS  The fan charts above showing forecasted prices of gold and silver 60 days ahead were generated after 10,000 trials of a Monte Carlo Simulation. Q stands for quantile thus Q90 is 90th quantile. Gold's Q90–Q75 spread (47.6 points) is in fact wider than its Q25–Q10 spread (36.0 points).  Gold's dollar distribution is modestly top-heavy: about 21.7% of upside room to Q90 against 18.2% of downside room to Q10, measured from the median. Silver's is extreme: +59% of  room above the median versus −34% below. The model isn't merely uncertain about silver; it is saying that if it is wrong, it is far ...