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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM: A PRIMER FOR RETIREES

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  The media is reporting that investors are showing heightened interest in Gold, Silver and Platinum as alternatives to savings deposits, annuities and stocks. Here is a primer.  Gold, silver, and platinum are classified as precious metals because they are naturally occurring elements defined by three primary criteria: rarity, high economic value, and chemical resistance (for various industrial ushes). GOLD (XAUUSD) -Current Price: $5,108.25 USD (as of Feb 20, 2026) -Reserves: Relatively scarce; estimated 50,000 metric tons of economically viable reserves remaining globally - Mining: Primarily mined directly from gold ore deposits through open-pit and underground mining; also recovered from placer deposits - Top Producer: China (approximately 11% of global production), followed by Australia and Russia) - Investment Role: Premier safe-haven asset, inflation hedge, currency debasement protection, central bank reserve asset, portfolio diversification - Industrial Usage: Electroni...
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Re tracking the USD: Don't use DXY. Use FRED Index

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Silver-Gold Noise Comparison as of 5 Feb 26

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 A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR DATA ON SPOT GOLD AND SPOT SILVER/ As analysed by ourWavelets Noise vs Fundamentals model, above chart is self-explanatory.  Its shows how Gold is less prone to attacks by speculators, and therefore more resilient. Silver price on the  other hand is very noisy, and therefor much more volatile. The distance of the blue line above the pink rectangle shows how much safer Silver is.   The column distribution below shows how extreme Silver price movement is compared to Gold.  Silver is 4 x more noisy than Gold. The Table below shows you that currently Silver is undervalued and Gold is fair value. The choice depends on your risk appetite and investing philosophy. 
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XAGUSD Flash Crash Analysis - January 30, 2026.

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A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR PROVIDING THE DATA FOR THIS POST XAGUSD Flash Crash Analysis - January 30, 2026 Crash Verdict: 109% Noise-Driven - Fundamentals Intact Price Drop: $117.63 → $111.12 (-$6.51, -5.5%) Attribution:Fundamental Change: +$0.57 (fundamentals ROSE during crash) Noise Change: -$7.08 (speculative bubble collapsed) Current Status (Jan 30) Fundamentals: $107.24 (strengthening) 30-Day Trend: $0.74/day ↑ (accelerating) 10-Day Momentum: $6.42 (strong, well above $3 threshold) Daily Change: +$0.57 (positive) Noise: $3.88 (collapsed from $10.96) Price now only 3.6% above fundamental Noise at 93rd percentile (last 60 days)
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Silver: Measuring Noise vs Fundamentals as Guide for Investing

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Table 1 Chart 1 If we are able to measure and differentiate Noise from Fundamentals, it can be useful for investing . Using the spot price of Silver as a case study, we use Wavelets to measure what portion of the price movements (whether up or down ) is due to Noise (N ) and what portion is due to Fundamentals( F). We define Noise as Speculative Activity and its Residual (remainder) as Fundamentals.    About Wavelets  Wavelets are a powerful mathematical tool for cleaning noisy time-series data, such as stock prices or medical heart rates, because they can simultaneously identify when an event happened and what its frequency was. Unlike traditional statistical measures like the Fourier Transform—which views data as an endless series of smooth waves—wavelets use "mini waves" that start and stop quickly. This unique "multi-resolution" capability allows them to surgically remove high-frequency random noise while preserving sharp, abrupt changes in the data, such as a s...
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Investigating Financial Markets as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) with Synthetically-Generated Data

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Introduction Traditional financial models assume markets are efficient, linear, and predictable. But real markets behave as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) - networks of interacting agents that self-organize, adapt, and generate emergent patterns. Using synthetically-generated data to mimic the price of a financial asset, this article examines eight key properties that distinguish CAS from traditional equilibrium models.  1. Path Dependence Markets exhibit path dependence: different sequences of events lead to different outcomes, even from identical starting conditions. History matters because early events can "lock in" trajectories that constrain future possibilities.   The visualization shows five simulated price paths starting from the same point. Despite identical initial conditions, different sequences of regime shifts and shocks cause the paths to diverge dramatically. By day 500, outcomes range from 40% losses to 150% gains - demonstrating that the order and timing of e...
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The Hallelujah Spot Silver Forecast: 12-Jan - 06 Feb 26

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A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR PROVIDING WITH ACCESS TO THEIR FINANCIAL MARKETS DATA: XAGUSD AND XAUSD ! Above is the probability heat map for Silver. It covers the price range USD70.00 to 90.00. As you can see, the forecast is optimistic. Even 09 and 10 Jan re-balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index where Silver's current weighting of 9% has been rebalanced to its allocated 4% has not dampened the bullishness. As of US market close on Friday 09 Jan, spot Silver is 79.84. So probability of 90.00 being achieved in current forecast horizon is achievable.   Below, the is day-by-day quantile forecast table to serve as a guide for your investing: And here is how the probabiltues for HitAnyDay and CloseAboveOnDay20 are calculated. SILVER FORECAST PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS 1. Monte Carlo Simulation Setup We run 1,000 simulations of silver price over 20 business days. Each simulation: Starts from the last observed price Uses ARIMA model for expected return Uses...
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