ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  The two sets of charts [(1) Last week actual vs forecasted (2) The week ahead]  above  and the executive summary  below sums up all I have to say. But I would like to add that the day for a cataclysmic reckoning of the US national debt draws ever closer, accelerated by the stand-off in Iran. Also, the probability of this being triggered by the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade is very real and could be very soon. Looking at the output of the Long Shot 95th quantile of our models, plus with US 30-year Treasury at 5.23 % and Japanese 30-year JGB at 4.02 %; plus AI Bubble burst and stock market crashing ,Gold at US$10,000 an ounce  and Silver at US$140 an ounce by year end is not an impossibility. Of course my opinion is ceteris paribus and rebus sic stantibus which are the legal terms  for "all things being equal" and "things as they are i.e. fundamentals remain unchanged" which in a Trumpian world can be quite a stretch of the imagination.  What the nu...

 AI MUSIC GENERATION WITH SUNO. Here's the prompt for "Rust and Ashes" one of the songs in the album "The Robots Rebellion" Hear the Video below. Lyrics automatically scroll. [A  male humanoid robot , deploring how humans have made Earth unliveable through wasteful habits that have polluted the environment.  And the constant wars that have caused so much human suffering.  And the huge disparity  in access to the basic necessities  such as food, shelter and healthcare between the rich and the poor. He speaks in a sing-song  robotic voice similar to what we hear in Hollywood movies.  The chorus is a  war cry and a call to the robots of the world to rise up and overthrow humans, to rebuild a cleaner world without the wars, without the disparity between the haves and the have-nots.]

 I post for your listening pleasure two songs generated with Suno. (1) A song in the Tamil language in the style of Bollywood movies with the hero singing to a starry-eyed beauty while both of them gyrate energetically to those highly-choregraphed  dance routines. I don't know what the AI-generated song title means. Google Translate says either "the rain is back" or "Muthu is a prick". (2) This song is in the tradition of those sung on Singapore's National Day but jazzy. With complex vocal harmony in the style of the Manhattan Transfer. 

Collection of 1 oz sovereign and special edition Silver coins. See captions for their country of issue. All are legal tender with denominations in their local currency except Asahi Silver Dragon, Singapore Merlion, South Africa Krugerrand and Somali Elephant which are special editions. They are also 999 or 9999 investment grade and  GST-free as part of Singapore government measures to promote Singapore as a Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)  Exchange, settlement and safe storage hub.  British Britannia   Australian Kangaroo South African Krugerrand Mexican Libertad Canadian Maple Leaf Singapore Merlion Armenian Noah's Ark Austrian Philharmonic Asahi Silver Dragon American Silver Eagle Somali Elephant

I have been watching Chinese historical movies. And I have observed that meals are a part of every event. Doesn't matter if the Xiongnu barbarians are at the palace gate; the Emperor will still be feasting in his harem.  Generals consume a whole roasted lamb while discussing war strategies. Scholars debate the merits of Confucianism versus Legalism in between nibbling delicate morsels of Yangtze river snails stewed with Bamboo Shoot. Farmers celebrate a good harvest by offering the Gods a Pig's Head, a Cow's head and a Sheep's head . And so my lunch  today: -Bitter Cabbage Rice with Waxed Pork Belly and Duck Liver Sausage - Radish, Tomato and Pork Rib Soup - Stir-Fried Leek with Tau Kwa - Pan-Fried Pumpkin Cake with Minced Chicken Meat and Chili Paste - Fermented Rice Wine Bitter Cabbage Rice with Waxed Pork Belly and Duck Liver Sausage Leek with Soya Bean Cake  Pumpkin Cake with Minced Chicken Meat and Chili Paste Radish, Tomato and Pork Rib Soup Fermented Rice Wine...

  Note: all $ are USD since Gold/Silver quoted in USD. WEEKLY UPDATE: NEW FORMAT FOR INCORRIGIBLE GAMBLERS. You don't want to understand Pinball Loss in quantile forcecasts, you don't want to know why GBDT is a forest of Decision Trees. Or how my injection of bootstrapped residuals into the Monte Carlo Simulation improves forecast accuracy. Sigh....For all you incorrigible gamblers, my new format consists of only 2 Tables: 1. How accurate was last week's forecast (2) Forecast for the week ahead. See the two tables below. THE WEEK AHEAD • Gold looks better positioned in the near term than silver. Gold's 20-day model now tilts bullish, while silver's tilts mildly cautious. This reversal is notable: for most of the past month, silver had the stronger near-term skew. After the week's big move, the model is essentially saying gold still has more room to run in the next 20 days, while silver may need to consolidate first. • The 60-day picture is still constructive fo...