ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

 ARE WE REALLY GOING TO HAVE A CRASH BEFORE MID APRIL? SEE CHARTS BELOW.  HeatMap shows at the moment main determinant of gold, silver price is negative correlation with USD (DXY)

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? BUT THE MODEL PERFORMANCE DIAGNOSTICS ARE SO GOOD. (SEE LAST PARAGRAPH BELOW) WE SHALL SEE, WE SHALL SEE. EVEN IF Q50 IS ACHIEVED I AM SET FOR LIFE!   The most immediate impact of the current USA/Israel-Iran war has been the sharp rise in oil and LNG prices as Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. According to the latest announcements by the US, Israel as well as the Iran governments, the war may likely continue for at least a few weeks or even a few months. I want to see if I can model the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment which the war will inevitably cause, on gold and silver prices in 60 days from now.  This is a departure from my usual models using just XAUUSD, XAGUSD price data. The macroeconomic variables input variables are:  1. Inflation (FRED Core PCE) 2. The US Dollar (FRED nominal broad dollar Index DTWEXBGS 3. 10 -year Treasury yields 4. Equities (stock market) S&P500 The impact on gold and silver prices will dep...

  The media is reporting that investors are showing heightened interest in Gold, Silver and Platinum as alternatives to savings deposits, annuities and stocks. Here is a primer.  Gold, silver, and platinum are classified as precious metals because they are naturally occurring elements defined by three primary criteria: rarity, high economic value, and chemical resistance (for various industrial ushes). GOLD (XAUUSD) -Current Price: $5,108.25 USD (as of Feb 20, 2026) -Reserves: Relatively scarce; estimated 50,000 metric tons of economically viable reserves remaining globally - Mining: Primarily mined directly from gold ore deposits through open-pit and underground mining; also recovered from placer deposits - Top Producer: China (approximately 11% of global production), followed by Australia and Russia) - Investment Role: Premier safe-haven asset, inflation hedge, currency debasement protection, central bank reserve asset, portfolio diversification - Industrial Usage: Electroni...

 

 A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR DATA ON SPOT GOLD AND SPOT SILVER/ As analysed by ourWavelets Noise vs Fundamentals model, above chart is self-explanatory.  Its shows how Gold is less prone to attacks by speculators, and therefore more resilient. Silver price on the  other hand is very noisy, and therefor much more volatile. The distance of the blue line above the pink rectangle shows how much safer Silver is.   The column distribution below shows how extreme Silver price movement is compared to Gold.  Silver is 4 x more noisy than Gold. The Table below shows you that currently Silver is undervalued and Gold is fair value. The choice depends on your risk appetite and investing philosophy. 

A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR PROVIDING THE DATA FOR THIS POST XAGUSD Flash Crash Analysis - January 30, 2026 Crash Verdict: 109% Noise-Driven - Fundamentals Intact Price Drop: $117.63 → $111.12 (-$6.51, -5.5%) Attribution:Fundamental Change: +$0.57 (fundamentals ROSE during crash) Noise Change: -$7.08 (speculative bubble collapsed) Current Status (Jan 30) Fundamentals: $107.24 (strengthening) 30-Day Trend: $0.74/day ↑ (accelerating) 10-Day Momentum: $6.42 (strong, well above $3 threshold) Daily Change: +$0.57 (positive) Noise: $3.88 (collapsed from $10.96) Price now only 3.6% above fundamental Noise at 93rd percentile (last 60 days)