ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  Next week’s 2,10,30-year Treasury yields may determine whether we will see the straw that will break the camel’s back, the snowflake that will trigger the avalanche, the spark that will set off the powder keg. Refer to image above for my 8 July post for a checklist of what will happen.   This week's models were run against a backdrop of extraordinary macro turbulence compressed into the final two trading sessions of July. On July 29, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5–3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote — three members dissented in favour of an immediate hike — sending a hawkish signal that drove the 30-year nominal Treasury yield to 5.28%, its highest level in 19 years. The following day, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted stealth yen-buying intervention (estimated at $74bn YTD), sending USD/JPY down almost 3% to 158 before a partial recovery. The combined effect: the DXY briefly fell below 100 — its lowest since mid-June — while nominal Treasury yields...

  AI can detect subtle patterns which the human brain may not be able to. Here are three examples. In these examples the AI converts the charts into pixels as well as uses OCR (Optical Character Recognition) to quantify changes in shades of colours, measure ‘distances’ between lines, rates of change and so on. Here are some of the hidden insights it uncovered.  1. FAN CHARTS  The fan charts above showing forecasted prices of gold and silver 60 days ahead were generated after 10,000 trials of a Monte Carlo Simulation. Q stands for quantile thus Q90 is 90th quantile. Gold's Q90–Q75 spread (47.6 points) is in fact wider than its Q25–Q10 spread (36.0 points).  Gold's dollar distribution is modestly top-heavy: about 21.7% of upside room to Q90 against 18.2% of downside room to Q10, measured from the median. Silver's is extreme: +59% of  room above the median versus −34% below. The model isn't merely uncertain about silver; it is saying that if it is wrong, it is far ...

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This week delivered a compelling but contradictory picture. Gold rose 1.8% to $4,055.70 and silver surged 4.6% to $58.49 — silver's outperformance compressing the Gold/Silver Ratio from 71.3 to 69.3, a notably bullish signal for silver relative to gold. The GBDT forecasting model responded with sharply higher median forecasts across all horizons, and gold's 60-day probability of gain jumped to 79.7%. Yet under the surface, the macro environment deteriorated on every front. The DXY-Metals Nexus Monitor composite scores deepened materially — Gold to −0.87 and Silver to −0.86, from −0.73/−0.72 last week — as all five signal modules held at Strong Reduce. Real TIPS yields continued to rise: the 10-year reached 2.43% (+8bp) and the 5-year climbed to 2.17% (+13bp), both firmly in Strong Headwind territory. The week's most significant signal shift: Gold's 60-day Skew Score flipped from Bullish Lean (+0.09) to Bearish Lean (−0.12), revealing that even as the ...

As I grow older, I have naturally gravitated  to a healthier diet with less meat and more fruits and vegetables. My eat-out  dinner tonight  was a bowl of Fishball Soup Noodles. and a fruit salad called Rojak. Rojak consists of Pineapple, Green Apple. Red Apple, Turnip and Cucumber. In a sauce of fermented shrimp paste.  Cost:S$10.00  

The iconic Gibson ES175 is the most sought-after guitar by jazz guitarists. Since 2019, Gibson has not been making it's range of jazz archtops. It's no longer commercially viable to produce hand-made top end guitars in the USA. Although there is a huge supply of used Gibsons ES175s in the market, jazz guitarists often prefer the made-in-Japan ES175 clones that have been produced since the 70's. Not only are they cheaper, they are extremely well-built, in some cases. of higher quality than the real Gibsons. Here are 3 of them from my collection as well my original Gibson. From left to right: 1968 Morris MB-1. The first MIJ ES175 clone. A heavy guitar with lots of mids. A tone reminiscent of the older jazz guitarists such as Joe Pass and Jimmy Bruno. 1972 Gibson ES175 Finished in nitrocellulose, making it a very playable guitar with an airy acoustic tone. The nitro has turned the body's original blonde into an almost orange color. 1989 Greco SuperReal Project FA-750. A ra...

Executive Summary  As of 18 July 2025, the three quantitative models present a nuanced picture: a near-term constructive signal from the GBDT forecaster is offset by persistent macro headwinds flagged by both the DXY-Metals Nexus Monitor and the Real Yields Monitor. The GBDT model assigns a greater-than-60% probability of price gains for gold over the next 20 and 60 days, and above-50% probability for silver across both horizons. Median forecasts for both metals sit above current market prices. Three of four forecast horizons carry a positive skew — meaning the model sees more room to the upside than to the downside. A particularly notable observation this week is that the 20-day Q90 pinball loss scores are lower than both Q50 and Q75 for both gold and silver. As explained in the GBDT section below, this is a bullish leading indicator: it signals that actual prices have been consistently landing closer to the upper end of the model's predicted range, pointing to embedded upward mom...