Posts

Gold/Silver Weekly Update 17/10 plus Quant Lesson

-
Image
  I do my weekly updates on gold/silver prices based on distilling the output of my 7 AI-driven models and deriving a conclusion based on my domain expertise. The models are: 1. GBDT-GARCH- My base model combining ensemble of gradient-boosted Decision Trees, GARCH, Monte Carlo and Quantile Pinball Loss.  2. DXY Monitor- tracking USD against EUR and JPY 3. Real Yields Monitor- tracking Nominal Interest Rates minus Inflation 4. JPY Carry Trade Unwind Monitor-Treasuries/JGB yield gap, FX stress, intervention risk, position crowding, BOJ and Finance Ministry news. 5. Hedge funds leveraged basis trade risk monitor- what those devils in the Cayman Islands are doing 6. Private credit, corporate bonds, AI debt risk monitor: A problem because they comete for Treasuries for funds 7. Gold/Silver Headwinds Monitor: Probabilities on which of the 6 factors above will break first  For this week, we analyse two charts from my models. The forecast probability chart and the s...
Post a Comment
Read more

Blessed Am I: Benditoak

-
Image
Blessed am I.  Benditoak (in Ilocano )
Post a Comment
Read more

The Economy of Johor: The Impact of Wealthy Singapore

-
Image
The Singapore-Johor Causeway is the busiest land crossing in the world. Every morning, 330,000 Johor residents make the trip to Singapore to work, and return home in the evening. By motor-cycle, motor vehicle and bus. Trucks laden with goods bound for the Singapore market also make the trip. On the flip side every day an average of 50,000 Singapore residents go to Johor for food, entertainment and  shopping and even healthcare products/services due to the favorable SGD/RMY exchange rate. This injects money into the Johor economy.  Below are 4 charts that show the impact of Singapore on the economy of Johor. Important clarification:  In economics, a Johor resident working in Singapore is counted as part of Johor's labor force that is employed. But his income is attributed to Singapore's GDP. However, this Johor resident's household income will include the portion of wages earned in Singapore that he brings back and converts to RMY (Malaysian Dollars) which is boosted by th...
Post a Comment
Read more

Financial Apocalypse: Which Straw Will Break the Camel's Back?

-
Image
  Our metaphorical straws a.k.a. factors DXY (USD) Index SP500 Equities Index HY OAS (high yield corporate junk bonds) KRE (US small regional banks credit liquidity) USD/JPY (Yen carry trade unwind proxy indicator) Real yields (TIPS -Treasury Inflation Protected Security) Tools and techniques: Kalman Filter, Student-t Copula, GARCH, Monte Carlo Simulation Run the animated GIF. It shows DXY  will most probably break first. Followed by SP500. Impact on Gold: DXY breaks down = Gold 6.5% up. SP500 tanks= Gold initally down by 4.1% then  rapidly recovers to surge to new high. .To watch out for : SP500 and HY OAS breaking down together. HY OAS stands for high yield option adjusted spreads i.e. premiums on high risk corporate bonds rated as Junk. Recent bankruptcies: DISH-DBS, Saks Global, First Brands, United Site Services, Office Properties Income Trust.  When will it happen? I can't model 'jumps' in the movements of the factors caused by Trumpian tweets, Iran and Houthis...
Post a Comment
Read more

Gold/Silver Weekly Update 101026: How to Use the Tables

-
Image
 Simple guide on how to use the forecast colored visuals table below.  First, study the probability of up/down for gold/silver for 20d/60d  If you are optimistic look at the green cells, if you are pessimistic look at the red cells.  Note the % increase decrease beside each price level If you are just meh... (6 7 in Gen alpha speak ) look at  Q50 column If you are FOMO look at Q90 column If you are an avaricious drunkard look at Q95 If you are sober and mildly pessimistic look at Q25 If you are paranoid and a nervous wreck look at Q10 • Gold near-term bias is unchanged from last week — modestly bullish (~63% Prob Up, mild positive skew), so the 20-day quantile ladder gives no reason to expect a materially different week-to-week path than last week’s forecast implied. • Gold’s medium-term signal is the one to watch, and it’s two-sided. The model is pricing a higher central path (median now above $4,500 at 60D) with very high directional confidence (83.6%), bu...
Post a Comment
Read more

Its Already Happening: Their level of Intelligence is way above us.

-
Image
When I am giving instructions or asking questions to my Claude.ai, I can see its response. Words used to keep me informed of task progress are "running a command" or "working on it" or "figuring it out" . But what fascinates me are the words that reflect its thought process. Such words include: sleauthing, untangling, orchestrating, cogitating, targeting, mulling, crystalizing, sifting, triangulating.  Here I am using two Agentic AI in Claude to discuss between themselves, cooperate and  build a complex model for me to estimate a timeline for the US financial apocalypse. And which of the factors is or are likely to be the straw(s) that breaks the camel's back to bring about the resurgence of Gold. The SP500 tanks?, Treasury yields explode?, the DXY (USD) Index falls?, the big banks' credit squeeze capitulation leading to rescue by the Fed with money printing?, the JPY Carry Trade unwind? The Hedge Funds' in the Cayman Islands' leveraged bas...
Post a Comment
Read more

Why Japan can sustain 200% Debt to GDP Ratio. While the US Economy with 126% Debt is about to implode

-
Image
 When you read the newspapers, economists are constantly panicking about the US national debt, which has crossed a staggering $40 trillion and stands at 126% of its GDP (meaning the country owes 26% more than the value of everything it produces in a year).Yet, Japan has a massive gross debt-to-GDP ratio sitting at over 200% to 264%—almost double the US load! And they have sustained this for 30 years without a financial collapse. How does Japan manage it?  Gross debt vs net debt: Think of a person who owes $200,000 on a house, but has $150,000 sitting in the bank. His gross debt is large, but his  net debt is very small. Japan has a huge bank account: The Japanese government owns trillions in financial assets, like foreign stocks and bonds. When you subtract what they own from what they owe, Japan's net debt drops to a very safe 77% to 78%. The US has no safety cushion: The US government spends everything it gets and doesn't hold large financial asset reserves. Its gross d...
Post a Comment
Read more