Weekly Gold and Silver Update 18 July 2026
Executive Summary As of 18 July 2025, the three quantitative models present a nuanced picture: a near-term constructive signal from the GBDT forecaster is offset by persistent macro headwinds flagged by both the DXY-Metals Nexus Monitor and the Real Yields Monitor. The GBDT model assigns a greater-than-60% probability of price gains for gold over the next 20 and 60 days, and above-50% probability for silver across both horizons. Median forecasts for both metals sit above current market prices. Three of four forecast horizons carry a positive skew — meaning the model sees more room to the upside than to the downside. A particularly notable observation this week is that the 20-day Q90 pinball loss scores are lower than both Q50 and Q75 for both gold and silver. As explained in the GBDT section below, this is a bullish leading indicator: it signals that actual prices have been consistently landing closer to the upper end of the model's predicted range, pointing to embedded upward mom...
