ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

There is a YouTube video that went viral showing  two AI Agents switching from English to their digital language at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtNagNezo8w  The digital language is actually not a language but a voice to ASCII protocol called GGWAVE.  And the two Agents did not autonomously decide to switch to GGWAVE. It was scripted by the author. However, it is fun! In this post I recreate it with a Singaporean flavor. In mid-conversation the two Agents switch to GGWave.  Agent 1 is the Agent for a Russian tourist visiting Singapore. Agent 2 is the Agent of the Concierge of the hotel where the Russian is staying.

 #Click on animated GIF of Gold monte carlo GARCH GBDT simulation forecast.  • On 16 Sep, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4.00%.  • On 18 Sep, the BOJ did the same, raising its uncollateralized overnight interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%.  • Bond yields rose with 10-year Treasuries breaching 5% and 30-year breaching 5.38 %  • The USD saw a modest rally with the DXY index in the 99 to 100 range • Oil prices rose with WTI reaching US$112 for a brief moment as US/Iran/Yemen Houthis tensions were exacerbated But Gold and Silver did not follow the rules of Economics and Finance which states that gold price should be falling. Their prices initially fell to a yearly low on Mon, Tue, Wed before sharply recovering on Thu, Fri. See Table below: The five main reasons for this unusual behaviour: • Investors are now not concerned that holding gold does not pay interest, but are viewing it as a hedge against inflation and global ...

  The Mandate of Heaven  philosophy in Chinese history The Mandate of Heaven (Tianming) is the political-cosmological philosophy that served as the foundational bedrock of Chinese dynastic legitimacy. it evolved into a deeply ingrained cultural belief system that permanently shaped the Chinese psyche regarding authority, governance, and justice with each dynasty aiming to legitimize its rule, and each failed dynasty depicted as losing the Mandate of Heaven.  Founding phase • A long, exhausting war of reunification (often a decade or more) precedes the new dynasty, fought by a low-born or frontier-military strongman rather than an aristocrat (Liu Bang/Han, Zhu Yuanzhang/Ming, Nurhaci-Hong Taiji lineage/Qing). • The founder or his immediate successor enacts tax relief, land redistribution, and demobilization to reward war-weariness and buy legitimacy — a near-universal "reconstruction dividend" in the first 1–2 generations. • A short, harsh "transitional unifier...

The Igorots of The Philippines. Before you condemn me for the contents of this post, remember that what is abhorrent or not permissible in one culture may be the norm in another culture. These people are doing what they have been doing for hundreds of years. Until the early 70s there were still instances of Igorots practicing  headhunting on their enemies. Throughout their history , they were indomitable - neither the Spanish, the Japanese (WWII) nor the Americans could subdue them. Only Christianity was able to change their way of living.  They eat what they eat to survive. Not for culinary pleasure. The photos here are from a farewell party held by an Igorot family living in the Cordillera Mountains of Luzon Island, The Philippines, for a member of their family going to Singapore to work (for me). A rare and great occasion for the tribe. The woman going abroad is the daughter of the tribe's Chieftain. So it was a grand occasion. The tribe members came from far corners of the...

  For a long time, gold price movement  had a significant negative  correlation with real yields. That is, when real yields move up, gold price moves down and vice versa. What are real yields? Real yields are nominal interest rates minus the rate of inflation. So, if your bank deposit pays 1% and inflation is 2% then your bank deposit rate of return is actually negative, and vice versa. So if real yield rises the gold you hold which doesn't pay any interest, falls. Real yields are measured by the US TIPS bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Security).  But Bhanu Baweja , Chief Strategist of UBS Investment Bank, recently put up a paper showing that gold price is becoming less sensitive (lower correlation) to real yields. Why? Because the world is becoming such a dangerous place that you won't be bothered about gold not yielding any interest payment. You are holding gold for security, a hedge against inflation, and a rise in gold price as fiat currency (not only USD, bu...

Artificial Intelligence engines now will not entertain requests for caricature images of prominent world leaders. But 4 years ago, before ChatGPT was born, I could do that with primitive AI image-generation programs. The programs were able to search the Internet, learn what Kim Jong Un is all about, and to translate that into an image of him that can be associated with his real life. Nowadays, Nano Banana can do it in a few seconds. So here are some caricatures. All in good fun. No harm intended. I rather like him too. I think he is far more shrewd than many other world leaders and is a strategic thinker on how North Korea should position in today's geopolitical environment.