GOLD SILVER WEEKLY UPDATE 01 AUG 2026

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Next week’s 2,10,30-year Treasury yields may determine whether we will see the straw that will break the camel’s back, the snowflake that will trigger the avalanche, the spark that will set off the powder keg. Refer to image above for my 8 July post for a checklist of what will happen.  

This week's models were run against a backdrop of extraordinary macro turbulence compressed into the final two trading sessions of July. On July 29, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5–3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote — three members dissented in favour of an immediate hike — sending a hawkish signal that drove the 30-year nominal Treasury yield to 5.28%, its highest level in 19 years. The following day, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted stealth yen-buying intervention (estimated at $74bn YTD), sending USD/JPY down almost 3% to 158 before a partial recovery. The combined effect: the DXY briefly fell below 100 — its lowest since mid-June — while nominal Treasury yields continued their ascent.

The intuitive conclusion — "rates up, dollar down, gold should surge" — is only partially borne out. Gold added a modest 1.1% to $4,100.10 and silver barely moved (+0.5% to $58.81), with the Gold/Silver Ratio ticking back up from 69.3 to 69.7. The GBDT model's median forecasts stepped slightly higher, and all Prob-of-Gain readings improved fractionally. 

Crucially, the nominal Treasury yield spike did not translate into higher real yields. TIPS (the US Treasury Inflation-Protected Security ) real yields actually fell modestly — 10-year TIPS: 2.41% (from 2.43%), 5-year TIPS: 2.14% (from 2.17%) —This is a subtle but structurally important development for precious metals, and the first week since tracking began in which the direction of the Real Yields signal has shown any softening.













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