Gold/Silver Weekly Update: Gold/Silver Spike Up

 

Note: all $ are USD since Gold/Silver quoted in USD.

WEEKLY UPDATE: NEW FORMAT FOR INCORRIGIBLE GAMBLERS.

You don't want to understand Pinball Loss in quantile forcecasts, you don't want to know why GBDT is a forest of Decision Trees. Or how how my injection of bootstrapped residuals into the Monte Carlo Simulation improves forecast accuracy. Sigh....For all you incorrigible gamblers, my new format consists of only 2 Tables: 1. How accurate was last week's forecast (2) Forecast for the week ahead. See the two tables below.

THE WEEK AHEAD

• Gold looks better positioned in the near term than silver. Gold's 20-day model now tilts bullish, while silver's tilts mildly cautious. This reversal is notable: for most of the past month, silver had the stronger near-term skew. After the week's big move, the model is essentially saying gold still has more room to run in the next 20 days, while silver may need to consolidate first.

• The 60-day picture is still constructive for both metals. Over two months, Gold's Best Case ($5,090) and Long Shot ($5,640) are well above current prices. Silver's Best Case ($78.59, +23%) and Long Shot ($90.90, +42%) represent the kind of numbers that get attention. These are not the base case — they are the tails of the distribution — but they are statistically grounded, not random guesses.

• The ✦ Long Shot column: why it matters here. The Q95 scenario is generated by Monte Carlo simulation — tens of thousands of random price paths — not the core model. It captures the true tail of what's possible if momentum compounds and volatility spikes simultaneously. Given that both metals are already tracking above their Q90 scenario from last week after just five days, dismissing the Q95 column this week seems premature.

• What to watch: the ratio. Gold outpaced silver this week, pushing the Gold/Silver Ratio up slightly from 69.3 to 69.0. Historically, in a sustained metals bull market, silver eventually closes the ratio gap sharply — sometimes in a matter of days. A ratio moving from 69 toward 60 would imply silver significantly outperforming gold. Watch whether silver's 20-day caution signal proves temporary or whether it marks a genuine near-term pause.