UNCERTAINTY:THE SILENT AND MOST DEADLY KILLER OF FINANCIAL MARKETS

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 THE UNCERTAINTY INDEX: SINGAPORE HAS THE HIGHEST LEVEL

Uncertainty is the silent and most deadly  killer of the financial markets. And Singapore, as one of the most open economies in the world with a trade-to-GDP ratio of 311% as of 2023 will be badly impacted.
https://www.policyuncertainty.com/ have done great work in creating Indices to measure uncertainty. Basically it uses text analysis keywords in the news media, in Internet searches as well as economic data and data on policy changes to compile the Uncertainty Index. They have also compiled Uncertainty Index for major countries as well as a global Index. Read the About Us and Methodology on their website for a better understanding . The chart shows global uncertainty at an all-time high due to Donald Trump's unpredictability and insane negotiation antics because he thinks ruling a country is similar to "The Art of the Deal" the title of his book. The previous peak on the chart was the Covid-19 crisis beginning in Jan 2020. And we know that lead to a global stock market crash. Whether it will lead to another such crash cannot be predicted at this point of time. But what is undoubtedly the consequence of his policies is that it will cause the ASEAN countries and even Australia, the European countries, Japan, and Korea to rethink the wisdom of their high dependence on the USA. Unknowingly, Trump has given China a gift on a golden platter.
The second chart shows the daily measure of uncertainty from 1 Nov 2024 (before US elections) to today.
The third chart compares USA, China and Singapore Uncertainty Index. 
I generated by first performing Unit Normalization of the data of these countries for valid inter-comparison. Note Singapore's high level of Uncertainty and China's low level of Uncertainty.
Global Uncertainty from 2000
Global Uncertainty since US Presidential Elections
Comparison of USA, China and Singapore Uncertainty levels from Nov 2024


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