ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

And this is only the beginning. Key dates to monitor. 1. 01 Jan 2026- China's export control of Silver begins. 2. 02 April- Indians can take out loans from banks using Silver as collateral. 3. 31 May- Powell leaves the Fed and Trump cronies step in. More debt, more interest rate cuts, USD down, inflation followed by recession.  4. 04 July- Independence Day. US revalues its 8000 tonnes of Gold reserves from $42.00 an ounce to $5000? $10000? Who knows. Silver goes to $100? $200? $300?   

  Japanese Yen at all-time low. Guitars are cheap at Ochanomizu. Bought this 2017 King Snake Curtis Deep Body for about S$1600 (qualify for tax exemption with Passport). The specs are rather different from other ES175 clones. The thin Nitrocellulose finish, P90 pick up windings, bracing, etc. You can read about the specs in the attached text image. In summary a fat edgy  tone with good sustain but without the feedback from the 85mm deep body.

 Its been about 25 years since China-made Eastman jazz archtop guitars were first available in the USA. Priced at appprximately US$1000, they were fantastically good value for money. They matched, nay even exceeded Gibson and other boutique jazz guitars in quality, specifications  at one fifth the price. Eastman jazz archtops are now established as premium instruments and widely played by top jazz artistes. However, they are now much pricier and many 'extras' are no longer given when you buy one. Here, we have a 2004 first generation Eastman AR805CE, with a hand-carved Spruced top. It came with a gorgeous fibreglass hard case. The case is lined with plush velvet, and there is a small pouch where a strap for slinging the case over your back to carry the guitar. There is  also a gold-colored humidity meter in the case.  The guitar sounds as good as any Gibson or D'Angelico archtops. In fact, it sounds even better because of the slighly smaller (16") body and Eastman'...

YES! BEARS DO APPEAR IN THE HAKODATE AREA. AND I'M EATING BEAR BURGER RIGHT NOW. Bear attacks are increasingly  frequent in Northern Japan. On 19 October 2025 Brown Bears appeared in the Hakodate area. The municipality has been recruiting hunters to cull the bears but few want to face a 300 kg angry animal which has lost its fear of humans and road traffic. Now, as the snow storm rages on, I am eating Bear burger in Japanese curry at a restaurant that specializes in bear meat. The burger comes with lots of vegetables: carrot, potato, eggplant, broccoli, capsicum. Washed down with a very good bottle of Sapporo Beer.  

  A big shout-out and thanks to EODHD.com for providing the data for this post. Current Silver Price: $58.52/oz Model: ARIMA(1,0,1)-GARCH(1,1) with 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations Forecast Date 3 Dec 2025 ________________________________________________________________________________ Why This Model Beats Traditional Technical Analysis Traditional technical analysis relies on pattern recognition, support/resistance levels, and indicator signals—all inherently subjective and backward-looking. Our probabilistic approach offers three critical advantages: 1.       Quantified Uncertainty: Instead of binary predictions, we provide probability distributions showing the full range of likely outcomes with confidence intervals. 2.       Dynamic Volatility Modeling: GARCH captures volatility clustering—the tendency for large price moves to follow large moves—which technical indicators miss entirely. 3.     ...