INSIGHTS FROM WARREN BUFFET'S STOCK MARKET INDICATOR

INSIGHTS FROM WARREN BUFFET'S INDICATOR OF THE STOCK MARKET. * This chart is taken from Bloomberg but with my annotations added. Warren Buffet has a long-term stock market Indicator that has proved to be very prescient. Basically it plots t he total stock market capitalization as a percentage of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (adjusted for inflation) . This chart is from 1949-2014. When the value of the stock market is a high percentage of the U.S. GDP, stocks are deemed to be overvalued. ( I should add, high means high as compared with the preceding decade or so). On my chart, you can see this happening and the sudden drop in those years, and the events in those years. What interests me are these points: 1. It seems that from 1995 onwards,the swings get more and more violent. Personally I attribute this to the wide-spread adoption of IT viz the Internet, global communication, and online financial transactions which really began around this date. By compressing the time frame in w...