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Showing posts from January, 2016

Are Economic Forecasts of any Value or Usefulness?

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Why do financial markets rise and fall with every announcement of how a country's economy fared? Why does the media consult economists for their views, and why do views invariably differ, sometimes by quite a lot? Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry forecasts the Singapore economy to grow between 1- 3% for 2016. Is this information useful? A 2% admission of possible margin of error is a lot. 2%  of Singapore's GDP of about US$300 billion is US$6 billion. Enough to give each of our 3.27 million citizens US$1,834.00 So what is the value of economic forecasting particularly when it is always being revised up and down as the situation changes? Rationale for still coming out with forecasts: 1. No matter how unreliable macroeconomic forecasts are policy makers still need to have forecasts for decision-making and planning. They cannot rule out the uncertainty but they can do Scenario Planning viz. if scenario A, then do this scenario B then do that. 2. At leas...

The Zen of Eating

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THE ZEN OF EATING salted fish pickled greens plain rice porridge slowly i savor every molecule less is more the Zen of eating my dinner.

Guitar Heaven: Ochanomizu,Tokyo, Japan.

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In Ochanomizu a district of Tokyo, Japan, is a street that has probably the greatest concentration of guitar shops in the world. This is the guitar enthusiast's Heaven where the widest range of guitars are  displayed: With prices from those that cost US$50.00 to US$10,000.00 and more. Of special mention are the dozens of Japanese made brands with astonishingly high quality. The spirit of lawsuit Ibanez, Grecos and Tokais still exist. With workmanship and attention to details much more superior than even Custom Shop Fenders and Gibsons, some of these guitars are not cheap. Indeed they are even more expensive than for example American boutique brands. They have strange names like: Combat, Freedom, History, Bacchus, Momose, Moon and so on. Its a pity that such beautifully-made guitars have names that make a player cringe or hair to stand on end. And these strange names on the headstock are  obstacles to their being accepted by players. Only after decades are the vintage Grecos, T...