A Coterie of Classic Japan-made Jazz Archtops

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L to R: 68 Morris ES175, 24 Ibanez PM 200,
16 D'Aquisto DQ-NYE, 78 Yamaha AE1200, 74 Epiphone Casino, 18 D'Angelico NYL-5

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A Comparison of Four Noise Reduction Algorithms as Applied to the BSE Sensex index.

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Chart 1: Noise Reduction Algorithms Compared. Data as of 12 June 2025 As compared with established and mature stock exchanges such as the New York, Japanese and European stock exchanges, frontier and emerging stock exchanges have a higher level of ‘noise’. In financial markets, "noise" refers to the erratic and often unpredictable fluctuations in price and volume that can make it difficult to discern genuine market trends. This noise can stem from various sources, including news reports, market sentiment, and even algorithmic trading. It essentially obscures the underlying fundamental value of an asset, making it difficult for investors to make sound decision. In this post, I am applying four types of de-noising algorithms on the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex Index (“BSE” or “Sensex”). My hypothesis is that the Sensex  has  a high level of noise. This is because a large proportion of the investors on the approximately 5000 stocks listed on the BSE are retail investors stee...
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USD and Gold provide a more accurate insight into the true state of the US economy than the SP500

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  Why? (1   - 60-70% of trades in the US equities market are done by automated AI-driven algorithms, including high frequency micro-second trading. These algorithms make their decisions not on economic or corporate fundamentals but on momentum, arbitrage opportunity, pattern recognition etc. (2  -  Previously the USD was a safe-haven currency that investors flock to in periods of economic, political or military instability. But with the chaos that is now going on in the USA, the USD seems to be losing its safe-haven status. As for Gold, it is still a safe haven asset, and recently we have seen the Central Banks of China, Russia, Japan and even some of the EU countires load up on Gold while paring down the amount of US Treasuries they hold. (3- The USD is the lynchpin that holds the US stock market and the Treasuries market together and a falling USD will make any rise in stock or bond prices unsustainable. Would you invest in US stocks if your profit is ...
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Markov Regime Switching Model for Risk‑On/Risk‑Off Dashboards of Stock Indices

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Knowing the market’s current risk state is foundational for portfolio decisions. Basic Markov chain models are a good starting point, but they fall short on three realities of financial data. Using as case study China's CSI300 Index, here’s how our model resolves each one and delivers a robust, reproducible Risk‑On/Risk‑Off signal. 1) Beyond “memoryless”: markets have persistence and aging Problem: Standard Markov chains assume memorylessness—the next state depends only on the current state, not on how long we’ve been there. Markets don’t behave that way; regimes “age” and persistence changes with time. Our solution: We use a hidden semi‑Markov model (HSMM) with explicit duration modeling. Each regime has a duration distribution (e.g., Negative Binomial), and transitions are allowed to depend on time spent in the state. This breaks the memoryless assumption, curbs flicker, and captures realistic regime persistence. 2) Heavy‑tailed, skewed returns are the norm—not Gaussian Problem: ...
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