US Treasuries ETFs post steep price declines

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SHY: 1-3yr Notes, IEF:7-10yr Bonds, TLT:>20y Bonds.

The US debt situation is not sustainable. As of March 2025 approximtaley 30% of the publicly held US marketable Treasuries of USD 30 Trillion will mature in 2025. They will have to refinance it by issuing new debt but investors will demand higher and higher yields to offset the risk they perceive as the economy goes into a tailspin under a crazy Administration. The rise in yields will affect the 30yr and 10 yr Treasuries most. 

Key Upcoming Maturities:

  • June 30, 2025: 132billioninsecuritiesheldbyfederaltrustfunds(e.g.,CivilServiceRetirementFund)willmature,alongside15 billion in interest payments.

  • Quarterly interest payments: ~$65 billion due May 15 and August 15 .

Treasury yields will spike as the rest of the world loses trust in US assets, all due to the MAGA Man and his crazy antics. The USD will keep falling and de-dollarization will accelerate. The US will go into a recession and we in Asia, especially the ASEAN countries  will rise up on the tailwinds of trade with the Chinese and Indian economies. Europe + Canada + Australia+ BRICs  will pivot towards Asia, and the US will be more isolated.  


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