Trump's Trade Tariffs: Which Countries will be most impacted?

-


The two charts above only tell the story up to 2023 from the Tariffs  imposed during Trump's first term together with those imposed by the Biden administration. And we have to wait till 1 August to see what Trump does-- TACO out again, or follow through on what he said, or make some adjustments. So far, as of today, the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia have 'caved in' to avoid the punishing Tariffs on them announced by Trump. Japan is particularly vulnerable due to its exports of automobiles, steel and machinery to the USA but is holding up strong to Trump. Germany's very high Trade/GDP ratio at first sight seems to suggest its very vulnerable. But it is part of the EU and has some relief and exemptions from trade Agreements negotiated between USA and EU. I am not sure why Indonesia bowed to Trump. Its Trade/GDP ratio is very low. Unless its all about Palm Oil which has a large market in the US , also President Prabowo is streetsmart and wily and knows to to pander to  Trump's egoisim and susceptibility to flatttering, and maybe there's a strategy behind this as in Indonesian Wayang Kulit (Javanese puppet shadow performance). Hong Kong and Singapore have very high Trade/GDP ratios but being global financial hubs, exports of high-value Services make up a significant portion of their Trade and so they are less vulnerable. I wouldn't worry about China- it has a huge  resilient economy and has always been able to adapt quickly to any challenges. Its Trade/GDP ratio has been going down and will continue to go down as it pivots to an economy led by  domestic consumption. Meanwhile its manufacturers have opened up many new markets (Latin America, Australia, Africa, Central Asia) as can be seen by the increase in exports for April (6.3%),  May (4.8%) and June (5.8%) 2025 despite the threats from Washington. 
Whatever Trump does is futile. We all want China's innovative, affordable and high quality goods. Compare that with expensive, mediocre goods from the USA-in an age when establised Western brandn names no longer has the same appeal any more in Asia and the BRICs countries. 


 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Comparison of Four Noise Reduction Algorithms as Applied to the BSE Sensex index.

-
Image
Chart 1: Noise Reduction Algorithms Compared. Data as of 12 June 2025 As compared with established and mature stock exchanges such as the New York, Japanese and European stock exchanges, frontier and emerging stock exchanges have a higher level of ‘noise’. In financial markets, "noise" refers to the erratic and often unpredictable fluctuations in price and volume that can make it difficult to discern genuine market trends. This noise can stem from various sources, including news reports, market sentiment, and even algorithmic trading. It essentially obscures the underlying fundamental value of an asset, making it difficult for investors to make sound decision. In this post, I am applying four types of de-noising algorithms on the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex Index (“BSE” or “Sensex”). My hypothesis is that the Sensex  has  a high level of noise. This is because a large proportion of the investors on the approximately 5000 stocks listed on the BSE are retail investors stee...
Read more

USD and Gold provide a more accurate insight into the true state of the US economy than the SP500

-
Image
  Why? (1   - 60-70% of trades in the US equities market are done by automated AI-driven algorithms, including high frequency micro-second trading. These algorithms make their decisions not on economic or corporate fundamentals but on momentum, arbitrage opportunity, pattern recognition etc. (2  -  Previously the USD was a safe-haven currency that investors flock to in periods of economic, political or military instability. But with the chaos that is now going on in the USA, the USD seems to be losing its safe-haven status. As for Gold, it is still a safe haven asset, and recently we have seen the Central Banks of China, Russia, Japan and even some of the EU countires load up on Gold while paring down the amount of US Treasuries they hold. (3- The USD is the lynchpin that holds the US stock market and the Treasuries market together and a falling USD will make any rise in stock or bond prices unsustainable. Would you invest in US stocks if your profit is ...
Read more

My Heart Belongs To The South

-
Image
Pictures from top: 1. The Confederate flag 2.Manatees: Malabar, Central Florida 3. My good friend Steve Thorpe with NASCAR racer. 4. Welcome to Georgia signboard 5. A Sunday aftertoon blue grass jam. 6. Carwash girl Melbourne, Florida 7. The Desert Inn at Yeehaw Junction near Kissimmee 8. Deep-fried duck with black-eyed peas and collard greens 9.Menu at the Marsh Landing restaurant, Fellmere, Florida 10. Barbecue joint in Mount Doro, Florida I moved to Princeton, New Jersey recently, after a year's stay in Melbourne, Florida. Melbourne is on the east coast of the Florida peninsula, right in the center between Jacksonville in the North and Miami in the south. Florida north of Fort Lauderdale is pretty much Southern USA. Not the caribbean culture of Miami and The Keys. Central Florida is more like Georgia and the Carolinas, though with some differences due to it's geographical features and climate. The land of alligators and swamps, cattle ranchers and cowboys called crackers, ci...
Read more