Spot Silver 20-day Ahead Forecast 03 Nov 2025

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Figure 1. XAUUSD (left axis) and XAGUSD (right axis) with 20-day probabilistic forecast and Gold/Silver ratio mini-panel.

 Acknowledgements: Thank you to EODHD.com for providing the data required for this blog post. 

At a glance: what's driving Silver (XAGUSD) prices?

  • Silver goes where Gold goes and since it is still much cheaper in US$ per ounce (US$48.00 for Silver versus US$4000 for Gold) itvattracts those who missed out on Gold and still has a lot of catching up to do. 
  • The huge US national debt of $38 trillion and growing by the day spooks traditional view of US Treasuries as risk-free
  • Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to respond to a sluggish economy  
  • China and many other Central Banks reducing their exposure to USD and stocking up on Gold
  • Inflation in the USA as Trump's tariffs kick in and consumers face higher prices
  • Federal Reserve announced end of quantitarive tightening which means quantitative easing (money printing) again in 2026.
  • Disconnect between paper Gold/Silver (COMEX and LBMA Futures) and physical Gold/Silver prices as Futures high delivery premiums on physical )

Forecast at a Glance

Probabilistic forecasts is more appropriate for the current volatile economic ad

Anchor date: 2025-10-31. Last XAGUSD close: 48.70 USD/oz.

Calibrated 20-day horizon levels:

Metric: q = quantile

Price (USD/oz)

q10=  (10% chance of falling below

48.45

q50 =(median) 50% chance of being

52.44

q90= 10% chance of rising above

58.08

Inputs (Full Names)

We model spot silver (XAGUSD) using a compact, information-dense set of inputs. The drivers include: XAGUSD (Silver)  and XAUUSD (Gold) spot prices; the US M2 Money Supply; the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield; the Consumer Price Index (CPI); the Producer Price Index (PPI); and the U.S. Dollar Index. All series are aligned to a business-day calendar and transformed into returns or changes, then standardized.

Methodology (Quantile Loss, Small Ensemble, Bootstrapped Residuals)

We forecast the 20-business-day ahead log return of XAGUSD using gradient-boosted decision trees trained with quantile loss (pinball). To improve robustness on a relatively short history, we use a small ensemble of models with shrinkage (lower learning rate, shallow depth) and subsampling. We calibrate the quantiles on a validation split via quantile mapping. To form a probability distribution for terminal price, we run a Monte Carlo simulation by bootstrapping residuals around the calibrated median forecast. The final chart displays the q10, q50, and q90 price levels as horizontal lines within a shaded band representing the full simulated range (q0–q100).

Gold/Silver Ratio — A Quick Read

Traders normally switch between Gold/Silver using the 80/50 Ratio. The Gold/Silver ratio is approximately 82.2 as of 2025-10-31, a -2.5% change since 2024-11-01. A falling ratio indicates silver outperforming gold; a rising ratio indicates the opposite.


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