Spot Silver Price Forecast 15 Nov 25 to 12 Dec 25

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  • Current Silver Price: $50.58 (Nov 14, 2025) !
  • 20-Day Outlook: Gradual upward trend expected
  • Day 20 Projection (Dec 12): $52.47 median (+3.74% from current)
  • Model Performance: Test RMSE of 0.022 (2.2% error)

 

Distribution Analysis

Left panel: Fan chart showing the full distribution of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations across percentile bands

Right panel: Violin plots showing the probability distribution at key forecast days (1, 5, 10, 15, and 20)

Uncertainty & Change Analysis

Left panel: Forecast uncertainty grows from ~$0.56 on Day 1 to ~$0.93 on Day 20 (Q90-Q10 range)

Right panel: Expected percentage change from current price - all 20 days show positive expected returns, ranging from +0.9% to +3.74%

Model Diagnostics

Residual Statistics:

Mean: 2.5e-05

Std Dev: 0.005226

Skewness: -1.326

Kurtosis: 8.649

The model shows good fit with near-zero mean residuals, though there's some negative skewness and excess kurtosis indicating occasional larger-than-expected moves

Feature Importance

The most influential features are lagged Silver prices (L1-L5) and Gold prices, confirming the strong relationship between precious metals.
The most influential features are lagged Silver prices (L1-L5) and Gold prices, confirming the strong relationship between precious metals.

Scenario Analysis


Scenario Analysis - Day 20 Silver Price:

Base Case: $51.86 (2.54%)

Gold +5%: $48.99 (-3.14%)

Gold -5%: $54.76 (8.27%)

Dollar +3%: $58.09 (14.86%)

Dollar -3%: $52.64 (4.08%)

Yield Spread +50bp: $51.79 (2.4%)

Key Finding: The model shows inverse correlation with Gold (counterintuitive!) and strong positive sensitivity to Dollar Index - a 3% dollar strengthening could push Silver to $58.09 (+14.9%). This may reflect recent market dynamics where Silver has decoupled from traditional precious metal correlations.

Correlations
Key Finding: The Dollar Index has a NEGATIVE correlation (-0.6847) with Silver price over the full historical period. This means when the dollar strengthens, Silver typically falls, and vice versa.

Rolling Correlations

Key Insights on Dollar Index vs Silver:

Latest Dollar Index correlation: 0.61

Historical average: -0.4113

This is fascinating! The Dollar Index correlation with Silver has completely flipped in recent months:

  • Historical average: -0.41 (negative correlation - traditional inverse relationship)
  • Current (Nov 2025): +0.61 (strong positive correlation)

What the chart shows:

  • Gold (gold line) maintains consistently high positive correlation (~0.95+)
  • Dollar Index (blue line) has dramatically shifted from negative to strongly positive since mid-2025
  • SP500 (orange) and CoreCPI (red) show moderate positive correlations
  • Treasury Spread (green) fluctuates around zero
  • PPI (purple) has some data gaps but generally weak correlation

This explains why the scenario analysis showed Silver rising when the Dollar strengthens - the model learned this recent regime change where Silver and the Dollar have been moving together, breaking the traditional inverse relationship.



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