Spot Silver Updated Forecast till 31 Dec 2025 plus Strategy and Risk Metrics

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 Note: Data as at 10 December 2025

Silver spot price has been running ahead of our forecasts due to: (1) we do not have true picture of Comex, LBMA breakdown due to sparsityof data. (2) We do not have availablale good quality data of Industrial demand for Silver (3) China's role and actions are very important but their shadowy presence is hard to quantify.

Neverthless, the table and strategy below will be useful:

Table is self-explanatory: you can follow and monitor this day by day.


Target Probabilities


Strategic Assessment

Current Position: Current Price: $61.91

Return Profile (20 days)
Median: +4.6%

Upside (Q90): +15.6%

Downside (Q10): -5.9%

Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.64:1

Key Probabilities
Profit (any gain): 72.1%

Gain >10%: 26.5%

Loss >5%: 11.9%

Risk Metrics
Median max drawdown: -5.0%

Worst 10% scenarios: -10.4%

Investment Strategy
Bullish Case (72% probability): The 2.64:1 risk/reward ratio is attractive. Silver already broke through $60 resistance, and momentum supports the median $64.79 target. The 26.5% probability of 10%+ gains offers asymmetric upside.

Position Sizing: The 11.9% probability of 5%+ loss suggests moderate position sizing. If holding physical silver, current levels justify maintaining or adding on dips to $60 (Q10 support).

Entry Strategy:

Aggressive: Buy now at $61.91, targeting $65 (65% hit probability)
Conservative: Wait for pullback to $60-61 range, which has 93% probability of holding

Exit Targets:

Take profit 1: $65 (65% probability, +5% gain)
Take profit 2: $68 (37% probability, +10% gain)
Moonshot: $70 (22% probability, +13% gain)
Stop Loss: $58.25 (Q10 floor at day 20). Only 3% of simulations breach this level, making it a statistical outlier.

Risk Management: The worst 10% scenarios show -10.4% drawdown. Size positions accordingly - if you can tolerate 10% temporary loss, current levels are favorable


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