US/Israel-Iran War: Macroeconomic Factors-Impact on Gold and Silver Price
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? BUT THE MODEL PERFORMANCE DIAGNOSTICS ARE SO GOOD. (SEE LAST PARAGRAPH BELOW) WE SHALL SEE, WE SHALL SEE. EVEN IF Q50 IS ACHIEVED I AM SET FOR LIFE! The most immediate impact of the current USA/Israel-Iran war has been the sharp rise in oil and LNG prices as Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. According to the latest announcements by the US, Israel as well as the Iran governments, the war may likely continue for at least a few weeks or even a few months. I want to see if I can model the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment which the war will inevitably cause, on gold and silver prices in 60 days from now. This is a departure from my usual models using just XAUUSD, XAGUSD price data. The macroeconomic variables input variables are: 1. Inflation (FRED Core PCE) 2. The US Dollar (FRED nominal broad dollar Index DTWEXBGS 3. 10 -year Treasury yields 4. Equities (stock market) S&P500 The impact on gold and silver prices will dep...