ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

The previous forecast was almost on the dot: See https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2025/12/spot-silver-updated-forecast-till-31.html  The current forecast is for each day from 05 Jan to 30 Jan 2026. I consider this forecast "Interim" because there are many exogenous factors during this period that may come into play which we cannot model and will make this forecast irrelevant. Among them: impact of China's export control, Bloomberg will also rejig the  weighting for Silver in its Commodity Index due to Silver's outperformance, COMEX declares force majeure and pays in cash if it cannot make physical delivery, the bullion banks may exit all Silver positions even if they incur losses. The Model For those who want to know: I use GARCH, ARIMA, 1000-trials Monte Carlo Simulation and Quantile Projections. The data is fitted to a Student-t Distribution to better accomodate tail risks. The Distribution is diagnosed for Fit with Aike Information Criteria (AIC). Also, ARIMA Resid...

The Hakka people are a subgroup of Han Chinese who primarily originated from the Central Plains (Zhongyuan) of Northern China, specifically the Yellow River basin area of present-day Henan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi. They are known as 'Guest People' as they have migrated out of their homeland to other parts of China. They migrated to Southern China primarily to escape warfare, social unrest, and invasions by nomadic tribes. Subsequent migrations to other parts of Chinawere driven by a lack of fertile land, population pressure, and conflicts with existing local populations in southern China.  Their cuisine reflects their cultural attributes of being hardworking, frugal, versatility and adaptability. Also known for their quick wit and good business acumen, famous Hakkas include China's Deng Xiaoping, Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, Sun Yat-sen the 'founder' of post-Dynastic China, Taiwan Lee Teng-hui and Singapore Businessman-philanthropist Aw Boon Haw.  Hakka dishes typciall...

 Note: Data as at 10 December 2025 Silver spot price has been running ahead of our forecasts due to: (1) we do not have true picture of Comex, LBMA breakdown due to sparsityof data. (2) We do not have availablale good quality data of Industrial demand for Silver (3) China's role and actions are very important but their shadowy presence is hard to quantify. Neverthless, the table and strategy below will be useful: Table is self-explanatory: you can follow and monitor this day by day. Target Probabilities Strategic Assessment Current Position: Current Price: $61.91 Return Profile (20 days) Median: +4.6% Upside (Q90): +15.6% Downside (Q10): -5.9% Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.64:1 Key Probabilities Profit (any gain): 72.1% Gain >10%: 26.5% Loss >5%: 11.9% Risk Metrics Median max drawdown: -5.0% Worst 10% scenarios: -10.4% Investment Strategy Bullish Case (72% probability): The 2.64:1 risk/reward ratio is attractive. Silver already broke through $60 resistance, and momentum supports the m...

And this is only the beginning. Key dates to monitor. 1. 01 Jan 2026- China's export control of Silver begins. 2. 02 April- Indians can take out loans from banks using Silver as collateral. 3. 31 May- Powell leaves the Fed and Trump cronies step in. More debt, more interest rate cuts, USD down, inflation followed by recession.  4. 04 July- Independence Day. US revalues its 8000 tonnes of Gold reserves from $42.00 an ounce to $5000? $10000? Who knows. Silver goes to $100? $200? $300?   

  Japanese Yen at all-time low. Guitars are cheap at Ochanomizu. Bought this 2017 King Snake Curtis Deep Body for about S$1600 (qualify for tax exemption with Passport). The specs are rather different from other ES175 clones. The thin Nitrocellulose finish, P90 pick up windings, bracing, etc. You can read about the specs in the attached text image. In summary a fat edgy  tone with good sustain but without the feedback from the 85mm deep body.

 Its been about 25 years since China-made Eastman jazz archtop guitars were first available in the USA. Priced at appprximately US$1000, they were fantastically good value for money. They matched, nay even exceeded Gibson and other boutique jazz guitars in quality, specifications  at one fifth the price. Eastman jazz archtops are now established as premium instruments and widely played by top jazz artistes. However, they are now much pricier and many 'extras' are no longer given when you buy one. Here, we have a 2004 first generation Eastman AR805CE, with a hand-carved Spruced top. It came with a gorgeous fibreglass hard case. The case is lined with plush velvet, and there is a small pouch where a strap for slinging the case over your back to carry the guitar. There is  also a gold-colored humidity meter in the case.  The guitar sounds as good as any Gibson or D'Angelico archtops. In fact, it sounds even better because of the slighly smaller (16") body and Eastman'...

YES! BEARS DO APPEAR IN THE HAKODATE AREA. AND I'M EATING BEAR BURGER RIGHT NOW. Bear attacks are increasingly  frequent in Northern Japan. On 19 October 2025 Brown Bears appeared in the Hakodate area. The municipality has been recruiting hunters to cull the bears but few want to face a 300 kg angry animal which has lost its fear of humans and road traffic. Now, as the snow storm rages on, I am eating Bear burger in Japanese curry at a restaurant that specializes in bear meat. The burger comes with lots of vegetables: carrot, potato, eggplant, broccoli, capsicum. Washed down with a very good bottle of Sapporo Beer.