ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

 The chart below shows the US Dollar Index.  This is the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis version- Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) which I find more accurate than the widely used DXY maintained by Intercontinental Exchange. In financial markets terminology, a Dead Cat Bounce refers to  a temporary relief rally that occurs following a significant sell-off of a financial instrument caused by changes in its fundamentals and economic environment.  The gruesome analogy relates to the belief that even a dead cat will bounce if thrown from a sufficient height and the higher the throwing point, the greater the bounce. Here we see the US Dollar's Dead Cat Bounce.  😰Note that with each bounce, the low gets lower, and the most recent bounce was from the greatest height i.e if previous cats were thrown from increasingly taller HDB blocks, this recent cat was thrown from Trump Tower, NYC. Click on image to see the dates on the X axis.

A Bond is an instrument of debt with a date of maturity and an interest rate known as the yield. Whether issued by governments or corporations, it is an undertaking to return to the holder of the bond, the principal on maturity. In the meantime, the bond is traded like stocks and shares and forex in the market, and the bond’s price/yield fluctuates according to demand and supply.  While it is true that the yield is determined by many factors it is also true that one of the important factors relates to an investor’s perception of the country’s trustworthiness and/or risk of default. Yields represent what the investor believes is a fair interest rate to pay for holding the bond.  Look at the Table below showing the10-year bond yields of selected countries with yields arranged in descending order and you will see that this is true.  Notes and clarifications • Japan’s yield is so low partly because only 13% of Japanese Government 10-year Bond is held by foreigners. There is...

Putu Piring is a delicious steamed Malay snack made of rice flour with fillings of Palm Sugar, Peanut or Coconut. It is served accompanied by fresh coconut flakes. The rice flour has been flavored with the leaf of the Pandan plant which gives it an intoxicating fragrance. Below you see the Putu Piring being prepared for steaming in the special steaming cups with covers.

  In Economics and Finance, there is the concept of risk-adjusted rate of return on investment. When Investment analysts calculate risk-adjusted rate of return on investment, formulas like the Sharpe Ratio and the Sortino Ratio are widely used. These  have an input component called the 'risk-free rate of return. (see Sharpe Ratio formula in image below). For decades, because of the dominance of the USD  in trade and its status as a safe heaven currency, and because the size of USD Treasuries market is so huge (much bigger than all the stock markets put together) and therefore infinitely liquid, the risk-free rate of return was assumed to be US Treasuries. However, the current antics of the MAGA Man has caused the USD to plummet, and the yield on US Treasuries to rise (which means their prices fall. Bond prices fall when yields rise) Would you hold US assets denominated in USD? So US Treasuries are no longer risk-free and the classical texbooks on Economics and Finance nee...

Dosa is a thin, crepe-like pancake from South India, made from a fermented batter of rice and black gram.  It's a popular breakfast, snack, or meal option in India and is often served with chutney and sambar. There are many varieties of Dosa, with different fillings. Contrary to popular belief, South Indian cuisine is a highly refined cuisine developed over thousands of years.  The image below shows a Thali (vegetarian platter with several condiments and dips) . What an interesting meal.   

  Data used: Boeing Co. Data as of 17 April 2025 It is true that short-term modeling and predictions of stock prices using just price data is valid and useful. We do not need fundamental data as input variables for short-term predictions. But there are inherent flaws in traditional Technical Analysis (TA). The inherent flaws of traditional technical analysis indicators, such as RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, all assume that the relationship between market variables is linear and that data distributions are Gaussian (Normal). But it is well-known that financial markets exhibit non-linear dynamic characteristics with distributions that are not Normal i.e. have more than 1 peak, are highly skewed and have long fat tails (kurtosis). And that the relationship between market variables is highly non-linear.  However, these short-term linear relationships can be modeled with Linear Regression . The Table below shows that Linear Regression, particularly its Boosted version produces the sm...

NINJA COUNTRY- Togakushi, Nagano Prefecture, Japan. With Cristina Rubis. 1.5 hours by Shinkansen from Tokyo + 1 hour by bus up mountains + 1 hour walk through pine forest. About 2000 metres high. Home of the Togakure Ninjas for 800 years. Descendents still reside here. We visited a real ninja house with its maze of tunnels, false doors, and many photos of ninjas training. Doing things you see in ninja movies. Photos were contributed by 34th generation ninja master Masaaki Hatsumi. Had difficulty finding the exit but they have intercom to contact the owner if you can't find your way out. I was surprised to find doors which opened in the least expected ways, and trapdoors which were only revealed when you touch a particular statue. The museum had many weapons used by the ninjas not seen before; besides the shuriken, smoke bombs, blowpipes, climbing ropes, bow and arrow, spears. But we were not allowed to take photos. The portal to Ninja country Its November but there's snow in t...

 Sapa, one of the most northerly towns in Vietnam, almost bordering China, has a cool climate, and beautiful mountain scenery. But what I like best about the town is the food and the hill tribes that inhabit the surrounding areas. Many restaurants in the town serve food caught by the hilltribes.  All over the world, throughout history, mountain peoples without access to refrigeration have smoked and dried their meat to last through the winter. Sausages are also common in all cultures, whether European or Asian. Here the  smoked and dried foodstuff of the Vietnamese hill tribes like the Hmong, Dau and Yao are quite similar to the longanisas, dinakdakan and etag of the Filipino Igorots and other mountain people. A restaurant signboard showing the types of meat and vegetables on the menu Water Buffalo Meat with Glutinous Rice  Me and Hmong Woman Hmong smoked sausages Hmong smoked Black Pig Bringing a pair of freshly caught wild ducks to sell at the market Freshwate...

 HE HAUNTED HOUSES AND PLACES OF BAGUIO CITY  Eerie sounds coming from down the hill from my condominium in Baguio. Baguio City, where I have a condominium, is the site of many haunted houses and places.  In World War II, American soldiers were based in Camp John Hays and the surrounding areas.  Many atrocities were committed during the Japanese invasion and occupation of the area, including the massacre of civilians. In addition, Baguio witnessed a disastrous earthquake in 1990 which killed many people.  Here are some of the locations where there were scary sightings. I also re-post a video of the eerie sounds coming from the valley below my condo sent by a friend living in the condo above mine. I have never seen anything supernatural though I have been to some of these locations. 1. Loakan Rd. The Pine tree near the Philippine Military Academy. What was seen: the Loakan White Lady. A cab driver was hailed a woman dressed in white.  He stopped to pick up t...

 Vigan is a city in Ilocos Sur Province. It has been preserved as a heritage city and its cobble stone streets,  Spanish colonial era architecture. Its imposing Roman Catholic cathedrals and sculptures,  draw in the Catholic masses not only from The Philippines but also from abroad. Here is a gallery of photos taken on my visit to Vigan. Read the captions below the photos. The horse-drawn carriages, cobble stone streets and colonial era Spanish architecture. The Ten Commandments in the Ilocano language How Strange! They practice mass indoctrination The imposing Saint Paul's Cathedral in Vigan Inside the Cathedrals The Cathedral in the night   Sculptures of the Saints ring the Cathedral    

There are many varietis of rice grown in the Cordillera Mountains of the Philippines.The farmers are mostly the Igorot tribesmen who inhabit these highlands. Not only are these hill rice more nutritious than Thai white rice, in my opinion, there are also more delicious, having more flavour and texture.  Some of the labels indicate the origin of the rice such as Apayao Province, Ifugao Provinces, and Sagada, in Mountain Province-famed for its terraced rice fields up the slope of the mountains/ Here is a gallery of the varieties of hill rice found at the market in Baguio, the hill resort town: