ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

  What are Ensembles Ensemble methods in predictive modeling are like gathering the opinions of multiple experts to make a final decision. Instead of relying on just one model to predict future market trends or ETF performance, ensemble techniques combine several different models to improve accuracy and reduce the risk of errors. Using a group of models, instead of just one, Ensembles "vote" on what should be the final output, leading to more reliable and balanced predictions. In regression models, ensemble methods typically use averaging to arrive at a final prediction. The final prediction is the average of all the individual predictions from these models. In boosting techniques, models are built sequentially, each improving upon the errors of the previous ones, and their predictions are also averaged to yield a final result. By combining multiple models, ensemble methods smooth out any individual errors, leading to more accurate and reliable predictions in tasks such a...

  The image above plots the Global Economic Policy Index from 1997 to Mar 2025. The Index is compiled by https://www.policyuncertainty.com/about.html an econmic research institute. Its methodology can be obtained from its website.  We can clearly see that the ups and downs are getting increasingly extreme. You can see it when you compare the height of the peaks registered during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the 2008 US Sub-Prime Mortage Melt-Down, the 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic, and the recent MAGA Madness.  The reason for greater and greater bouts of Uncertainty volatily is that as countries of the word become more and more interconnected through technology and trade, the world economy becomes a SuperOrganism with a life of its own- a.ka. A Complex Adaptive System (CAS). The properties of a CAS are feedback loops, adaptation and co-evolution, emergent behaviour, decentralization and distributed control etc. The full list of properties is given below.  Another r...

  From L to R: 1989 Greco FA-750, 1972 Gibson ES175, 2024 Tokai FA-320, 1968 Morris MB-1, 2006 Archtop Tribute AT-101. The tone of the Gibson ES-175 can be said to be what most people perceive as the tone of a jazz guitar. Users include some of the most well-known jazz guitarists of the time including Joe Pass, Pat Metheny, Jim Hall, Kenny Burrell, Pat Martino, Howard Roberts, and countless others. Unfortunately, Gibson stopped production of jazz archtop guitars in 2019. Thus you can only find ES-175s on the used guitar market, and they still cost an arm and a leg ranging ranging from US$4,000 to US$18,000 depending on the year of manufacture, and condition of the guitar.  However, there are many Japanese guitar brands that sell copies of the ES-175 whether new or old or from the 70's Lawsuit era when Gibson sued Ibanez over copyrights of guitar design. They are affordable ranging from US$1500 to US$3000. The Japanese versions are not to be sneeered at. They are extremely well...

  Statistics from: Singapore Department of Statistics and US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . The Personal Savings Rate (PSR) of an economy is one of the components in the assessment of a country’s economic health; and resilience to economic and financial market shocks.  PSR= Savings/Disposable Income x 100. Disposable Income= Income-Taxes.  Notes   Personal Savings Rate % (PSR) is computed at National Accounts (GDP) level therefore some items may not be what you usually think of as personal savings.   Here, Savings include CPF contributions, as well as the Personal Disposable Income and Private Consumption of Goods and Services of Permanent Residents and Migrant Labor.   Income includes the rental income of private property by the rich, as well as amounts from CDC Vouchers, and other government transfers.   With $36 trillion in debt, a weakening USD and increasing budget deficit due to tax cuts, and a low PSR, the US economy has the potential t...

Sri Lankan food is hard to find even in a cosmopolitan city like Singapore. But I found a stall selling authtentic Sri Lankan food in  theTekka Food Centre in Serangoon Road, the hub of Little India. The Indians are described in the photos above. I did not eat my lunch with rice but with String Hoppers known locally as Putu Mayam and  Coconut Milk Rice cake known as Kiribath. Joyweed is a species of spinach which is supposed to have mood-altering properties. The Goat Tripe tastes funkier than Beef Tripe, and the salted Queenfish is cooked with Red and Green Chili. Seems like Sri Lanka cusines uses more Coconut than Indian cuisine.  I was also surprised to find Sri Lanka food even spicer than Indian food.   

  #“It ain’t over till the fat lady sings” is an American colloquialism   meaning that the final outcome of an event is uncertain until it's completely over. It's often used in situations where a seemingly certain outcome could still be reversed. The origin of the phrase is from Richard Wagner’s opera “Die Valkure” (The Valkyrie) where the long aria by Brunhilde marks the end of a Ring cycle. Here’s a look at what the market thinks about Trump’ s 90-day pause for tariffs on China. We explain the charts attached. Chart: 1-3,7-10,>20 US Treasuries prices falling Data from 2 Jan to 15 May. The prices of 1-3yr tenure [SHY Yellow], 7-10yr tenure [IEF Red] and >20yr tenure [TLT Green] ETFS of Treasuries are all falling in unison. Their prices have been standardized by Z-score to make them inter-comparable visually. So you can see that the long bond, the >20 bond which are mostly held by foreign central banks, sovereign funds and large pension funds falls the most. Whic...

If you are in the US stock market with a short-term trading objective, it is relevant to know the degree of correlation of the US Dollar market and the US Treasuries market with the US stock market as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). Note:We use DJI as the reference Index instead of the SP500 or the Nasdaq because it’s all about Trump’s tariffs now and tariffs are on Goods, not Services. And on Manufacturing, not IT Technology. Ticker Symbols Output variable-DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average Input variables DXY: US Dollar Index SHY: iShares 1 to 3 year Treasuries ETF IEF iShares 7 to 10 year Treasuries ETF TLT: iShares >20 years] Treasuries ETF The chart above shows the performance of all the variables. The variables have been standardized/normalized by transforming into Z-Score. So, we need to see the degree of correlation between the input variables and the DJI. We use the simple Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation R because  our data series only consist...

  SHY: 1-3yr Notes, IEF:7-10yr Bonds, TLT:>20y Bonds. The US debt situation is not sustainable. As of March 2025 approximtaley 30% of the publicly held US marketable Treasuries of USD 30 Trillion will mature in 2025. They will have to refinance it by issuing new debt but investors will demand higher and higher yields to offset the risk they perceive as the economy goes into a tailspin under a crazy Administration. The rise in yields will affect the 30yr and 10 yr Treasuries most.  Key Upcoming Maturities : June 30, 2025 :  132 b i l l i o n i n s e c u r i t i e s h e l d b y f e d e r a l t r u s t f u n d s ( e . g . , C i v i l S e r v i c e R e t i r e m e n t F u n d ) w i l l m a t u r e , a l o n g s i d e 132  bi ll i o n in  sec u r i t i es  h e l d  b y  f e d er a lt r u s t f u n d s ( e . g . , C i v i l S er v i ce  R e t i re m e n t Fun d )  w i ll  ma t u re , a l o n g s i d e  15 billion in interest payme...

Although I am an ethnic Chinese, I know nothing about traditional Chinese medicine. When I saw a bottle of Chinese tonic  wine on the shelf of  the local supermarket, and it cost only S$9.00, I bought it since the usual Gin, Whiskey, Brandy etc was beyond my budget.On arriving home, I poured my myself a tiny cup of the 36% alcohol content wine for tasting. It was too bitter and the smell of herbs and what other things I-know-not was very strong. Nevertheless I shall bravely sip it once in a while for the label said that it was good for treatment of "Nutritious and strengthening waist, promoting the brain and recovering memory and untimely senility .." I Googled and translated the ingredients and was amused: The name Tzepao Sanpien Jiu means: 3-Penis Wine. The ingredients are: Penis cervi (Deer penis) Penis otariae (Seal Penis) Penis et testis canidae (Dog penis and testicles) Radix Ginseng (Ginseng root) Comn cervi pantotrichum (Deer antler) Radix Astralagi" Milkvetch ro...

  We are now able to peer into the brains of Artificial Intelligence entities to glean insights on how it thinks. In Part 1 of this topic we put DeepSeek in DeepThink and Websearch mode. DeepThink activates DeepSeek's reasoning mode. Here is my Prompt to DeepSeek on the probability of a US recession:  Based on the extensive research and data you have gathered regarding economic indicators, trends, and expert analyses, please provide a comprehensive assessment of the likelihood of a recession occurring in the United States. In your response, consider factors such as GDP growth rates, unemployment statistics, inflation trends, and any relevant geopolitical influences. Your output should be structured as follows: begin with a brief overview of the current economic climate, followed by a detailed analysis of the factors influencing the recession probability, and conclude with a clear probability percentage or qualitative assessment of the likelihood of a recession in the near futu...