USD/JPY: Musings on the Rise and Fall of Economies.

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The chart above shows USD/JPY from 1971 at 6-monthly intervals. It's rather frightening to see that USD/JPY used to be as cheap as 350 Yen to USD1.00. Compared to this the current range of USD/JPY 140 to 150 is fantastic. What has happened to USD/JPY  has also happened to the GBP/SGD and the USD/SGD and now AUD/SGD.  If I remember correctly, in the early 70's GBP/SGD was around 7.00 (today it's 1.73) and USD/SGD was around 3.60. (today it's 1.28). So if you take a long term view and the big picture I would dare to say that exchange rates are a valid and good indicator of the rise and fall of economies. When I  take a look at SGD/AUD, I wonder if the good old days of the Lucky Country  are over. SGD/AUD is now around 1.22 It used to be that SGD/AUD was <1.

This brings me to what I quoted from the Bible on this blog in 2008-15 years ago. I was reflecting on the unpredictability of financial markets. The image below is a n-dimensional continuous wavelet transform of the S&P500 Index from 2006 to 2006. The details show the intricacies, the noise and patterns reminsicent of Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect.


Quotes from the Bible

On Randomness:"I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all."~~Ecclesiastes 9:11

On Non-linear Feedback Loops in Complex Adaptive Systems: “I tell you everyone who has, shall more be given, but from him who has nothing, even what he has shall be taken.” ~~Matthew 25:29

On Cycles:"When the seven years of abundance enjoyed by the land of Egypt came to an end, the seven years of famine set in."~~ Genesis 41:53/54



 

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