ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR PROVIDING THE DATA FOR THIS POST XAGUSD Flash Crash Analysis - January 30, 2026 Crash Verdict: 109% Noise-Driven - Fundamentals Intact Price Drop: $117.63 → $111.12 (-$6.51, -5.5%) Attribution:Fundamental Change: +$0.57 (fundamentals ROSE during crash) Noise Change: -$7.08 (speculative bubble collapsed) Current Status (Jan 30) Fundamentals: $107.24 (strengthening) 30-Day Trend: $0.74/day ↑ (accelerating) 10-Day Momentum: $6.42 (strong, well above $3 threshold) Daily Change: +$0.57 (positive) Noise: $3.88 (collapsed from $10.96) Price now only 3.6% above fundamental Noise at 93rd percentile (last 60 days)

Table 1 Chart 1 If we are able to measure and differentiate Noise from Fundamentals, it can be useful for investing . Using the spot price of Silver as a case study, we use Wavelets to measure what portion of the price movements (whether up or down ) is due to Noise (N ) and what portion is due to Fundamentals( F). We define Noise as Speculative Activity and its Residual (remainder) as Fundamentals.    About Wavelets  Wavelets are a powerful mathematical tool for cleaning noisy time-series data, such as stock prices or medical heart rates, because they can simultaneously identify when an event happened and what its frequency was. Unlike traditional statistical measures like the Fourier Transform—which views data as an endless series of smooth waves—wavelets use "mini waves" that start and stop quickly. This unique "multi-resolution" capability allows them to surgically remove high-frequency random noise while preserving sharp, abrupt changes in the data, such as a s...

Introduction Traditional financial models assume markets are efficient, linear, and predictable. But real markets behave as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) - networks of interacting agents that self-organize, adapt, and generate emergent patterns. Using synthetically-generated data to mimic the price of a financial asset, this article examines eight key properties that distinguish CAS from traditional equilibrium models.  1. Path Dependence Markets exhibit path dependence: different sequences of events lead to different outcomes, even from identical starting conditions. History matters because early events can "lock in" trajectories that constrain future possibilities.   The visualization shows five simulated price paths starting from the same point. Despite identical initial conditions, different sequences of regime shifts and shocks cause the paths to diverge dramatically. By day 500, outcomes range from 40% losses to 150% gains - demonstrating that the order and timing of e...

A BIG THANK YOU TO EODHD.COM FOR PROVIDING WITH ACCESS TO THEIR FINANCIAL MARKETS DATA: XAGUSD AND XAUSD ! Above is the probability heat map for Silver. It covers the price range USD70.00 to 90.00. As you can see, the forecast is optimistic. Even 09 and 10 Jan re-balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index where Silver's current weighting of 9% has been rebalanced to its allocated 4% has not dampened the bullishness. As of US market close on Friday 09 Jan, spot Silver is 79.84. So probability of 90.00 being achieved in current forecast horizon is achievable.   Below, the is day-by-day quantile forecast table to serve as a guide for your investing: And here is how the probabiltues for HitAnyDay and CloseAboveOnDay20 are calculated. SILVER FORECAST PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS 1. Monte Carlo Simulation Setup We run 1,000 simulations of silver price over 20 business days. Each simulation: Starts from the last observed price Uses ARIMA model for expected return Uses...

The previous forecast was almost on the dot: See https://ngtiankhean.blogspot.com/2025/12/spot-silver-updated-forecast-till-31.html  The current forecast is for each day from 05 Jan to 30 Jan 2026. I consider this forecast "Interim" because there are many exogenous factors during this period that may come into play which we cannot model and will make this forecast irrelevant. Among them: impact of China's export control, Bloomberg will also rejig the  weighting for Silver in its Commodity Index due to Silver's outperformance, COMEX declares force majeure and pays in cash if it cannot make physical delivery, the bullion banks may exit all Silver positions even if they incur losses. The Model For those who want to know: I use GARCH, ARIMA, 1000-trials Monte Carlo Simulation and Quantile Projections. The data is fitted to a Student-t Distribution to better accomodate tail risks. The Distribution is diagnosed for Fit with Aike Information Criteria (AIC). Also, ARIMA Resid...

The Hakka people are a subgroup of Han Chinese who primarily originated from the Central Plains (Zhongyuan) of Northern China, specifically the Yellow River basin area of present-day Henan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi. They are known as 'Guest People' as they have migrated out of their homeland to other parts of China. They migrated to Southern China primarily to escape warfare, social unrest, and invasions by nomadic tribes. Subsequent migrations to other parts of Chinawere driven by a lack of fertile land, population pressure, and conflicts with existing local populations in southern China.  Their cuisine reflects their cultural attributes of being hardworking, frugal, versatility and adaptability. Also known for their quick wit and good business acumen, famous Hakkas include China's Deng Xiaoping, Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, Sun Yat-sen the 'founder' of post-Dynastic China, Taiwan Lee Teng-hui and Singapore Businessman-philanthropist Aw Boon Haw.  Hakka dishes typciall...

 Note: Data as at 10 December 2025 Silver spot price has been running ahead of our forecasts due to: (1) we do not have true picture of Comex, LBMA breakdown due to sparsityof data. (2) We do not have availablale good quality data of Industrial demand for Silver (3) China's role and actions are very important but their shadowy presence is hard to quantify. Neverthless, the table and strategy below will be useful: Table is self-explanatory: you can follow and monitor this day by day. Target Probabilities Strategic Assessment Current Position: Current Price: $61.91 Return Profile (20 days) Median: +4.6% Upside (Q90): +15.6% Downside (Q10): -5.9% Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.64:1 Key Probabilities Profit (any gain): 72.1% Gain >10%: 26.5% Loss >5%: 11.9% Risk Metrics Median max drawdown: -5.0% Worst 10% scenarios: -10.4% Investment Strategy Bullish Case (72% probability): The 2.64:1 risk/reward ratio is attractive. Silver already broke through $60 resistance, and momentum supports the m...

And this is only the beginning. Key dates to monitor. 1. 01 Jan 2026- China's export control of Silver begins. 2. 02 April- Indians can take out loans from banks using Silver as collateral. 3. 31 May- Powell leaves the Fed and Trump cronies step in. More debt, more interest rate cuts, USD down, inflation followed by recession.  4. 04 July- Independence Day. US revalues its 8000 tonnes of Gold reserves from $42.00 an ounce to $5000? $10000? Who knows. Silver goes to $100? $200? $300?   

  Japanese Yen at all-time low. Guitars are cheap at Ochanomizu. Bought this 2017 King Snake Curtis Deep Body for about S$1600 (qualify for tax exemption with Passport). The specs are rather different from other ES175 clones. The thin Nitrocellulose finish, P90 pick up windings, bracing, etc. You can read about the specs in the attached text image. In summary a fat edgy  tone with good sustain but without the feedback from the 85mm deep body.

 Its been about 25 years since China-made Eastman jazz archtop guitars were first available in the USA. Priced at appprximately US$1000, they were fantastically good value for money. They matched, nay even exceeded Gibson and other boutique jazz guitars in quality, specifications  at one fifth the price. Eastman jazz archtops are now established as premium instruments and widely played by top jazz artistes. However, they are now much pricier and many 'extras' are no longer given when you buy one. Here, we have a 2004 first generation Eastman AR805CE, with a hand-carved Spruced top. It came with a gorgeous fibreglass hard case. The case is lined with plush velvet, and there is a small pouch where a strap for slinging the case over your back to carry the guitar. There is  also a gold-colored humidity meter in the case.  The guitar sounds as good as any Gibson or D'Angelico archtops. In fact, it sounds even better because of the slighly smaller (16") body and Eastman'...

YES! BEARS DO APPEAR IN THE HAKODATE AREA. AND I'M EATING BEAR BURGER RIGHT NOW. Bear attacks are increasingly  frequent in Northern Japan. On 19 October 2025 Brown Bears appeared in the Hakodate area. The municipality has been recruiting hunters to cull the bears but few want to face a 300 kg angry animal which has lost its fear of humans and road traffic. Now, as the snow storm rages on, I am eating Bear burger in Japanese curry at a restaurant that specializes in bear meat. The burger comes with lots of vegetables: carrot, potato, eggplant, broccoli, capsicum. Washed down with a very good bottle of Sapporo Beer.  

  A big shout-out and thanks to EODHD.com for providing the data for this post. Current Silver Price: $58.52/oz Model: ARIMA(1,0,1)-GARCH(1,1) with 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations Forecast Date 3 Dec 2025 ________________________________________________________________________________ Why This Model Beats Traditional Technical Analysis Traditional technical analysis relies on pattern recognition, support/resistance levels, and indicator signals—all inherently subjective and backward-looking. Our probabilistic approach offers three critical advantages: 1.       Quantified Uncertainty: Instead of binary predictions, we provide probability distributions showing the full range of likely outcomes with confidence intervals. 2.       Dynamic Volatility Modeling: GARCH captures volatility clustering—the tendency for large price moves to follow large moves—which technical indicators miss entirely. 3.     ...