Analyzing Trump Tariff Impact with Japanese Rice Cooker Fuzzy Logic Algorithm

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Data is for 2023 from the CIA Factbook, an interesting website to read https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/

Introduction to Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy Logic algorithms are a way of looking at the world, not in black and white but shades of grey with black and white at the extremes (like “Fifty Shades of Grey “ the movie.) Japanese consumer electronic appliances have been using Fuzzy Logic for decades. Examples:
• Washing Machines: Japanese washing machines use fuzzy logic to sense the load size, fabric type, and dirtiness of clothes. The machine then adjusts the water level, wash time, and detergent amount for optimal cleaning.
• Rice Cookers: Fuzzy logic rice cookers monitor temperature and moisture, adjusting cooking time and heat to produce perfect rice regardless of the amount or type.
• Air Conditioners: Fuzzy logic air conditioners sense room temperature, humidity, and even the number of people in the room, then adjust cooling power smoothly for comfort and energy efficiency.
• Digital Cameras: Many cameras use fuzzy logic to automatically adjust focus, exposure, and white balance based on lighting and subject movement.
Why use Fuzzy Logic? Fuzzy logic mimics human decision-making, handling uncertainty and imprecision just like we do in daily life. These real-world examples show how fuzzy logic bridges the gap between rigid computer logic and the flexible, nuanced way humans think—just like in this tariff vulnerability analysis and scoring, where countries aren’t simply “vulnerable” or “not vulnerable,” but somewhere in between. 
Impact of Trump tariffs 
We assess the impact of US Tariffs for China, EU, Japan, Singapore and Russia. 
The formulas for conversion of data to Fuzzy  sets are too technical for readers to delve into. But basically, the model analyses and develops a Fuzzy score for a country’s top 5 trading partners in Exports and Imports of Goods, and the percentage of Services component of their GDP (higher percentage of Services in GDP means less vulnerability to Tariffs) Goods.   It also puts everything together in a correlation matrix to analyse the inter-relationships of each country with each of its top 5 trading partners for Exports and Imports of Goods. The chart above is a visualization of statistical likelihood of  Trump Tariff impact on China, Singapore, European Union, Japan and Russia-Russia is already facing many export controls so the impact of Trump tariffs are low. 


 

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