ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

Randomness :" I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all."~~ Ecclesiastes 9:11 Non-linear Feedback Loops : “I tell you everyone who has, shall more be given, but from him who has nothing, even what he has shall be taken.” ~~Matthew 25:29 Cycles :"When the seven years of abundance enjoyed by the land of Egypt came to an end, the seven years of famine set in.."~~ Genesis 41:53/54 1. I-Dimensional Continuous Wavelet Transform of SP500 January 06-July 08 2. S&P500 Weekly Data: Jan 2006 to July 09 2008 (133 data points) 3. Wavelet-based Synthesized Time Series Example A 4. Wavelet-based Synthesized Time Series Example B 5 . Wavelet-based Synthesized Time Series Example C The reason why the stock market's direction (as represented by an Index) cannot be pr...

A Simple Chinese Repast: Click on Images for fullsize and Details. It sure is comforting in these inflationary times to know that a nutritious dinner for two can cost only US$3.50. In Singapore, the Teochew Chinese [a dialect group from Guangdong] are famous for their Rice Gruel meal accompanied by a choice of dozens of small dishes. The accompanying dishes could be something as simple as boiled peanuts or tofu cakes, to dishes like braised duck or steamed Flower crabs. If you stick to the simple stuff, a Teochew porridge dinner for two, even in big-city Singapore costs less than the price of a Big Mac. My meal for two persons downing 3 bowls of rice gruel each @ 20 cents a bowl ( above pictures of the 3 dishes, and a bowl of rice gruel) was a delicious and healthy meal that cost me just US$3.50 at the current exchange rate. The dishes are (from second top picture): (1) Minced pork with black beans, (2)boiled Silver Fish with lime and fresh-cut red peppers (3) Salted Mustard Greens. (B...

Believe it or not, guitars breathe, and they do need to breathe if they are to sound good. Take out a guitar that has been kept in its case for ages, especially an acoustic guitar, and pluck the strings. It will sound muffled and stifled. The ringing sustain with clear overtones that you expect from a good guitar will be absent. But leave the guitar outside its case for a few days, in a place that's not so humid, and there will be a difference in the sound. Good wines breathe, and so do guitars. The type of finish (paint) used on a guitar is a very important factor in its ability to breathe. Many vintage guitars sound great because they do not have thick coats of paint but were au naturel, or had only a thin coat of paint followed by a top coat of nitrocellulose lacquer. The ban on nitrocellulose lacquers (for health or environmental reasons I think) and the fashion for guitars to have custom colors like Shell Pink, Pacific Blue, Candy Apple Red, etc resulted in guitars that could...

Click on images for full-size and details. By this time you must be pretty disillusioned with analysts' estimates and forecasts as well as what Companies tell us they are worth i.e. their book value.Using ValuEngine's Model and Viscovery's Self-Organizing Map, we take a look at what kind of stocks appear in our stock pick list if we ignore analysts' estimates, Price/Book ratios, Price/Earnings and Price/Sales ratios. We also ignore the forecasts of ValuEngine's Forecast Model that does simulation treating stock prices as mean-reverting stochastic processes, since at this stage we believe that certain Model variables such as Average Volume [Liquidity], Volatility, and Size should have greater weighting in the Model parameters. In the top image, the statistics of Cluster 3 [S3] are the most favorable when measured in terms of standard deviation from the screened population. The screen used is somewhat similar to the "stocks for a recession screen" of the Ma...

Autocorrelation characteristics of Exxon Mobil [XOM] Autocorrelation characteristics of Petroleo Brasileiro [PBR.A] Autocorrelation characteristics of Statoil [STO] Autocorrelation characteristics of Google [GOOG] * click on images for full-size and details. It is a fact that a stock's past price affects its current price. i.e. A stock's price is correlated with itself for any given period of lag. A less technical explanation of this phenomenon would be that investors look to a stock's past price as a guide for future prices. The 'collective memory' of a stock's investors thus manifests itself as its autocorrelation characteristic. The degree of autocorrelation [AC], and the total effect over time varys greatly with each stock. In the context of ValuEngine's Valuation model, a high autocorrelation level indicates high persistence in over or undervaluation, and a long period to correct the mispricing. If we know the AC characteristics of a stock, it can be...

The big difference between Western medicine and Chinese medicine is that the former treats the symptoms, while the latter treats the causes. For example, a Western doctor will give pain killers, antihistamines and antibiotics for the relief of the symtoms of influenza. A Chinese doctor on the other hand, believes that the influenza was caused by a temporary break-down of your body's immune system caused by imbalance of your Yin [negative, cool, female etc] and Yang [positive, heat, male etc] properties. He will therefore brew you a herbal concoction to restore the balance of Yin and Yang in your body and allow its immune system to function normally again. Most of the Chinese herbs that give energy and power such as Ginseng and Cordyceps [caterpillar fungus***] restore deficiencies in Yang. But some people, may suffer from too much Yang, and this also leads to fatigue, headaches, being prone to influenza, sore throat, teary-eyes, tinnicus, sniffles, swelling of the lymph nodes etc....

Yunnan province, in the South-west of China, is close to Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and has a small area in the North-West bordering Tibet. This mountainous region has a climate that is tropical and yet pleasantly cool the whole year round. Kunming, the capital is known as the City of Eternal Spring. The area is very rich in natural resources, and was one branch of the famed Silk Road. Yunnan's products include the best rare Chinese medicinal herbs, the famous Pu-erh tea, historically sent as tribute to the Emperor in Beijing, jade, silk, flowers, iron ore and gold. Foodwise, it is famous for its mushrooms and ham. Many species of strange-shaped mushrooms thrive in this wet, cool environment and some of them are known for their medicinal properties. The dry mountain air also makes Yunnan ham the best in China. And it is the province with the largest number of ethnic minorities (26). Otherwise known as Hill tribes. The presense of these tribes make this area an anthropologist's par...