ALL THINGS BIG AND SMALL 2.0

Chart above shows since 2025, the level of Uncertainty as measured by the q90-q10 spread in pur quantile forecasts has dropped significantly. Interpretation: Forecasts are now less uncertain and more reliable. The chart above shows that the degree of Gold/Silver negative correlation as dropped since May 2026 and is now rising in a tight range between -0.25 and -0.05. Interpretation: There are other factors besides Treasury yields that impact the price of gold and silver. A basic tenet of Finance- that Gold as a non-yield asset moves in the opposite direction to Treasuy yields is losing its hold. 

 Silver 20 Day ahead Monte Carlo Simulation animation shows Silver moderately bearish  Gold 20 Day ahead Monte Carlo Simulation animation shows Gold taking a rest. Silver 60 Day ahead Monte Carlo Simulation animation  shows bearish trend has stopped. Gold 60 Day ahead Monte Carlo Simulation animation shows in the longer term Gold slighly more bullish CAVEAT: The situation may change from week to week roiled and buffeted  up and down by Trump and his Tweets. But focus on the inevitable:  Here is the math behind the unprecedented US national debt. -Size of debt as of today. $40 Trillion plus -US GDP $32 Trillion -Annual budget deficit $2 trillion -Unfunded liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Benefits, Food Stamps $100 Trillion! - Debt/GDP ratio 125% -Annual interest payment 1 Trillion  - Amount to be refinanced this year $10 Trillion - Average interest rate on old debt 2-3% -Average interest rate on new debt 4-5%

  Richard Wagner's opera Gotterdammerung (Twilight of the Gods) depicts the curse placed on humanity for stealing the magic Gold from the River Rhine. Götterdämmerung is visually defined by a fiery, apocalyptic clash between divine light and absolute destruction, capturing the literal "twilight" or downfall of a mythic world.  I liken the US's  uniliteral suspension of  backing the USD  with Gold in 1971 (Smithsonian Agreement August 1971) as akin to Alberich the Dwarf's  theft of the Rheingold. Which began the gradual creation of the current unsustainable  US national debt leading to the coming financial Gotterdammerung.  Here is the math behind the unprecedented US national debt. -Size of debt as of today. $40 Trillion plus -US GDP $32 Trillion -Annual budget deficit $2 Trillion  -Unfunded liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Benefits, Food Stamps $100 Trillion! - Debt/GDP ratio 125% -Annual interest payment 1 Trillon - Amount t...

When will the US Financial Armageddon happen? The list of factors that can be the straw that breaks the Camel's back are many. But currently one of the most likely is the unwinding of the JPY Carry Trade. Here is the 220826 weekly monitor and score for the likelihood of the unwinding. Data Sources: USD/JPY Spot; USD/JPY Volume; US 10-yr yield, JGB 10-yr yield; VIX; Fed Funds Rate, CFTC weekly Traders' Commitments; Leveraged Funds and Cayman Isands Hedge Funds data. Methodology and model weights: Proprietary.  

 Gold: Forecast vs Actual Gold: The week ahead Silver: Forecast vs Actual Silver: The week ahead Executive Summary The outlook for Gold and Silver remains bullish. In the q50 (median) quantile, Gold outperformed the weekly forecast by 3.8% while Silver outperformed by 3.97%. The steep run-up was partly due to Scott Bessent's (US Treasury) intervention to reverse the rise in 30-year Treasuries which hit aan unprecendented  high of 5.34% As with his Japanese Yen intervention, this did not work as yields fell for a day before before retracing back to 5.28%  On a relative basis, and compared with historical Gold/Silver behaviour, Gold far outperformed Silver. Historically, Silver has a Beta of at least  2. That is, Silver moves up (as well as down) twice as much as Gold.  After such a breathless run-up, it is not surprising that the momentum will decelerate for the week ahead. Silver will underperfrom Gold, as it is not a 1st tier central bank reserve asset like gol...

 A song in the Ilicano language  about four Ilocanos  who are good friends, working ass domestic helpers in Singapore and miss Ilocano food. Cick on the music video. 

 * generated with Nano Banana 2 #Heed the unusual signals  that are now appearing ALL AT THE SAME TIME.  1. US Treasury 10yr (4.69%) and 30yr yields (5.26%) highest since 2008 Great Financial Crisis. 2. BUT the USD is falling. Euro, Yen, even GBP rising against USD. 3. At the same time stock market , thanks to the AI bubble rolls merrily along.  4. Oil prices rising but USD falling. What happened to great Petrodollar? 5. Metals rising: Not just Gold and Silver but also Platinum and  Copper  6. 30-yr Japanese JGB bonds reach 4.01 % 7. US private credit funds freezing redemption requests  from shareholders.  Here is the Prompt I used to generate this image: "A  storm is brewing in  the financial  markets  and could soon turn into a Tsunami.  With better information and control of their assets, the market insiders and the rich are already preparing for it while the man-in-the-street is still blissfully unaware.   Dr...